ARGENTINA
Analysts
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Joaquin Cottani
Former Economy SecretaryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Explaining the Differences Between MECON’s Financing Program, Released Yesterday, and My Own Estimates Published Last Week
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026
As expected, the government yesterday released its financing program for 2026 and 2027 in response to strong market demand. While the announcement has helped assuage investor concerns about the administration’s ability to service debt maturing this year and next, it leaves some important question...
Rethinking Argentina's 2026–27 external financing gap
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Back in January, I argued that the combined US dollar debt obligations of the National Treasury and the Central Bank (BCRA) appeared too large relative to the Milei administration's capacity to finance them through the end of the presidential term. Six months later, that situation looks considera...
Seeking stability with no takeoff in sight
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2026
The debate surrounding Argentina's outlook increasingly revolves around a simple but consequential issue. Can the economy recover before inflation reaches truly low levels, or must inflation fall further before a meaningful recovery can occur? A weaker peso risks reigniting inflation. A stable p...
The Ides of May
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 May 2026
In Roman tradition, the Ides of March evoke foreboding and anxiety, while the Ides of other months, such as May, suggest cautious optimism. At this time in May, Argentina’s economy resembles the latter more than the former. April was a better month than March, and May’s economic results are expec...
Stable disequilibrium
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Apr 2026
I see Argentina's macroeconomy as trapped in a state of internal and external disequilibrium. On one hand, the output gap is negative, meaning that GDP is running below potential, On the other, the central bank is having trouble accumulating reserves at a high enough speed to convince internatio...
Macro update: tail risks down, frictions up
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Apr 2026
Argentina’s macro program continues to deliver short-term financial stability, but the underlying tensions between disinflation, growth, and external sustainability remain unresolved. Recent developments confirm that the policy mix is effective at reducing tail risks—namely, a disorderly devaluat...
Asymmetric exchange rate flexibility as a path out of stagnation
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2026
For Argentina to break out of its current stagnation without triggering a sustained increase in inflation, it needs to adopt an asymmetrically floating exchange rate regime. Asymmetric floating implies allowing the peso to depreciate when demand for dollars rises, while intervening to accumulate ...
The Middle East conflict: a catalyst for policy recalibration in Argentina?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Mar 2026
The Middle East conflict represents a double-edged sword for Argentina. While it strengthens the external sector through improved terms of trade, it also exacerbates inflationary pressures and financial vulnerabilities. This combination may ultimately force a reassessment of the current policy mi...
Stagflation deepens: Can Argentina find a way out in 2026?
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Mar 2026
According to the September–October 2025 Survey of Political Satisfaction and Public Opinion conducted by Universidad San Andrés, low wages and limited employment opportunities have become the primary concerns among respondents. Inflation now ranks lower, alongside insecurity, poverty and perceive...