MEXICO
Analysts
Mauricio González
Former Director of Economic Policy, Finance Ministry
Guillermo Valdés
Former Director, Center of Investigation & National Security
Mariano Ruiz-Funes
Former Director of Financial Policy, Ministry of Finance
Francisco González
Economic Consultant, GEA Grupo de EconomistasDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economics: Banxico faces high uncertainty amid still-uncontrolled core inflation and the Fed rate outlook
MEXICO · Report · 07 Jul 2026
Banxico's Governing Board unanimously held the reference rate at 6.5% at its last monetary policy meeting, closing out an easing cycle that had accumulated a 475-basis-point reduction since March 2024. The pace of cuts had been rapid, and the pause comes at a time when core inflation remains abov...
Politics: Mexico's 2027 midterm elections: early maneuvering, internal tensions, and a fragmented opposition
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2026
With eleven months to go before Mexico's midterm elections — in which 500 congressional seats, 17 governorships, and nearly two thousand municipal presidencies are at stake — Morena has already launched its candidate selection process, months ahead of what the law permits. Exploiting a strategy r...
Politics: Justice in Mexico—the great deficit
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026
Mexico's justice system faces a structural crisis of historic proportions, one that now carries direct geopolitical consequences. The US demand to extradite ten ruling-party politicians linked to criminal organizations has forced President Sheinbaum into an impossible dilemma: complying risks a s...
Economics: June data signal persistent economic weakness, policy uncertainty, and rising fiscal risks
MEXICO · Report · 29 Jun 2026
Mexico's economy continues to underperform in 2026, with our GDP growth forecast at just 0.9% for the full year. Private investment has contracted for 19 consecutive months and is expected to remain weak throughout the year, held back by uncertainty — including about the USMCA renegotiation and t...
Economics: A weak labor market in the January–May 2026 period
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026
Mexico's labor market in the first four months of 2026 reflects the broader weakness of the economy. Total employment grew just 1.2% year on year in April, with growth concentrated almost entirely in the informal sector (up 2.0%), while formal employment contracted slightly (-0.1%). This marks th...
Politics: The 4T Government and Morena amid Latin America's political realignment
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jun 2026
Less than two years into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum faces compounding vulnerabilities that point toward a difficult remainder of her term. A stagnant economy, rigid public finances, deepening ties between Morena and organized crime, and unmet social demands across security, healthcare, and...
Economics: Development banking in Mexico—a persistent deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2026
Although development banking is one of the main pillars for achieving the goals of Plan México and the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Wellbeing announced by President Sheinbaum as the strategies to reactivate investment and economic growth, in practice development banking has...
Politics: World Cup—Federal government and Mexico City government under heavy pressure
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jun 2026
Mexico’s hosting of the 2026 World Cup—jointly with the United States and Canada—has placed the Sheinbaum government under intense scrutiny at a moment of mounting social discontent. Multiple aggrieved groups—CNTE teachers, farmers and truckers, mothers searching for disappeared relatives, dismis...
Economics: Mexican automotive sector faces high uncertainty ahead of USMCA renegotiation process
MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2026
The first formal round of negotiations for the USMCA review took place on May 28 and 29 in Mexico City. According to various official statements and declarations, a significant portion of the agenda focused on automotive sector rules of origin and the current tariff applied to non-U.S. content in...