PANAMA
Analyst
Marco Fernandez
Former Economic Advisor, Ministry of PlanningDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Mulino confirms Cobre Panama will not operate under a contract-law framework approved by the National Assembly
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2026
President José Raúl Mulino used his address at the opening of the National Assembly’s legislative session to clarify one key point on Cobre Panama: the legal mechanism for a potential reopening will not be a contract law and, therefore, will not be submitted to the National Assembly for approval,...
Mulino’s “mining deadline” is near, but Cobre Panamá’s re-opening schedule is uncertain. Strong activity data support a 4.5% growth forecast for 2026
PANAMA · Forecast · 30 Jun 2026
"D-Day" is approaching for the solution of the "Minera Panama Case": our assessment is that on July 1, the date President Mulino had promised to present the roadmap for the reopening of the copper mine, he may propose general ideas rather than specific plans. The same day, the new Directorate of ...
Good news for the Canal and the country, progress on copper and news on public finances
PANAMA · Report · 22 May 2026
The selection of Ilya Espino de Marotta, currently Deputy Administrator and Chief Sustainability Officer of the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), as the Canal’s next Administrator is good news for institutional continuity, technical credibility and the execution of the agency's medium-term investment...
Should Cobre Panamá reopen? Wrestling with a high-stakes mining decision
PANAMA · Report · 30 Apr 2026
The key environmental audit of the copper mine will be out at the end of this week. After a two month period for national discussion, President José Raúl Mulino will, on July 1, present the strategy for reopening of the mine. We discuss the executive, legislative and judicial challenges Panama wi...
Growth beat expectations in 2025, but labor market slack, debt management complexity, and oil price risk cloud the outlook
PANAMA · Report · 27 Mar 2026
Panama's economy grew by 4.4% in 2025, above expectations, supported by a solid fourth quarter and particularly strong performance in transportation, commerce, and construction. Even so, the annual result remained heavily influenced by the hydrological recovery of the Canal. Excluding transportat...
Panama, the U.S., and China: ports as a geopolitical linchpin
PANAMA · Report · 25 Feb 2026
Panama’s takeover of the Balboa and Cristóbal seaports operations marks a geopolitical inflection point in which the ports—more than the Canal itself—have become a strategic lever in U.S.-China competition. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling that declared unconstitutional the legal framew...
Panama Supreme Court Voids Panama Ports Concession: Vertical-Integration Risk for the Canal
PANAMA · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026
Panama’s Supreme Court has declared unconstitutional the legal framework underpinning Panama Ports Company’s (PPC) concession for the Balboa (Pacific) and Cristóbal (Atlantic) terminals, tied to the 1997 contract-law, its addenda, and the renewal act. These are not small assets: in 2025 Balboa ha...
Mining reopening and Canal projects to drive growth, with inflation near zero, unemployment high and fiscal compliance dependent on a land sale to the ACP
PANAMA · Forecast · 16 Jan 2026
We project real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. The sharp acceleration in 2027 is based on the possible reopening of the copper mine at Donoso and the start of large Canal-related investment projects that we have reported on previously. Donoso is in the legal planning phase, while th...
Good news on growth and prices, while the ACP increases transfers to the Treasury
PANAMA · Report · 19 Dec 2025 · 1 response
The third-quarter GDP figure published this wekk (3.9%) exceeded our expectations and raises the possibility of full-year growth close to 4.0%, above our 3.6% estimate. Over the first three quarters, cumulative GDP growth reached 4.2%, driven by the same sectors that led the third quarter: transp...