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This is the quarterly slide deck for 2Q26 for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inflation, ra...

Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response

I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026

Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026 · 1 response

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gas, roses and peppers—Armenia's dilemma

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jun 2026

"If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." Pashinyan's agriculture-related tirade become one of the more widely discussed soundbites of the final week of the campaign. That emotionally-charged outburst was tied to the recent restrictions ...

Armenian election results take an odd turn

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026

In a rather odd development, the Central Election Commission announced changes in the results previously reported on its website. Trying to explain the changes would only spoil interpretation, so I take the liberty of simply citing CEC Chairman verbatim: "You have all seen the figures published o...

Armenian elections results: first thoughts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026

The CEC has just announced the preliminary results from yesterday's vote (final tally must be submitted by law within 7 days of the election). Here are the key takeaways as I see them: 1. The election was hotly contested in a polarized society. The turnout, at roughly 59%, was higher than the 201...

Armenia elections: Outlook and implications - Slide presentation and webinar replay

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 04 Jun 2026

Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Get insight into Armenia's parliamentary elections with the slide presentation and repl...

Upcoming webinar: Armenia elections - outlook and implications

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jun 2026

Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026

The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026

I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...

Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026

This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Iran shock reshapes CCA macro dynamics

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 May 2026

The Iran crisis has brought to the fore two relevant cross-cutting themes in the CCA related to inflation (monetary policy) and exchange rates. Regarding inflation and monetary policy, early in the crisis I constructed a simple comparative framework (vulnerability index) that aimed to capture ...

Tajikistan breaks record with massive CA surplus

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026

As I indicated earlier, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguably the two most interesting countries from an analytical perspective as far as the external sector is concerned, lagged with reporting full 2025 BoP data, but the former has now announced it. Very meaningfully, Tajikistan has posted its 6th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia's election math

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Apr 2026

Two fresh polls were released in Armenia over the past two weeks, which allows me to tighten up my predictions about how the elections will evolve in about a month's time. The polls are valuable as it has been now two months since the previous batch of surveys were produced, so that the new resul...