GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The moment Trump’s Air Force 1 landed in Ankara, where he was personally welcomed by Erdogan, Trump began heaping praise on the latter, which continued before and after the summit press comments. It is certain that the troubled Turko-American relationship made a clean break with its past, with re...

Chaotic politics, stagnant economy

TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2026

The macro context has become palpably more stagflationary over the past few months, with economic activity stagnating but inflation remaining elevated -- and we expect things to stay this way for the foreseeable future. But this should be no threat to the proverbial “carry trade” -- the only thin...

June inflation: a summer respite of sorts

TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2026

Consumer prices rose by 1.0%, m/m, in June, in line with the median market expectation. As a result, annual consumer price inflation eased slightly to 32.1%, from 32.6% in May. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 1.8% in June, with the 12-month PPI rate thus declining also slightly to 28.1% from 2...

No snap elections in 2026, thus spoke the politics author

TURKEY · Report · 28 Jun 2026

Despite objections from Greek and Israeli lobbies, the NATO Ankara summit is poised to turn into a love-fest between Messrs. Trump and Erdogan, with parties exchanging numerous gifts. Trump’s expected favors to Turkey could help scale up the defense industry and rebuild enough trust in Ankara to ...

Volatile politics, stagnant economy

TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2026

The July Ankara NATO summit ostensibly aims to convince Trump that the best interests of the US are served by remaining and nurturing NATO. In fact, the summit will also celebrate Erdogan’s return to Western alliances, as a fully committed member willing to lift its share of the burden. Turkey’s...

La nausée

TURKEY · Report · 14 Jun 2026

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the court-appointed chairman of CHP, seems to be in collusion with President Erdogan, hollowing out the party step by step by ejecting MPs and rank-and-file by disciplinary action. He has no intention to convene a new Grand Convention to pit himself against former chair Ozgur ...

No change, as expected

TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2026

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37%, 300 bps below the funding rate, broadly as expected. There was no material change in the statement other than a more explicit reference to demand weakness.

All eyes on CHP and reserves

TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2026

We’ve reported on Q1 growth and May inflation data last week, which, in a nutshell, leave us with a stagflationary picture, with economic activity barely moving sequentially, and annual CPI inflation edging up further to 32.6% (from 32.4% in April). The rebound in manufacturing sector PMI in M...

May inflation: still badly stuck

TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2026

CPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, in May, slightly above expectations, with annual consumer price inflation edging up to 32.6%, from 32.4% in April. With monthly domestic PPI inflation at 2.75% in May, the 12-month PPI rate also rose -- to 28.9%, from 28.6%.

Stagnation in the first quarter

TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...

Mayhem @CHP: some thoughts

TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2026

As we had announced last Sunday, there will not be a weekly report today because Turkey was on holiday during much of last week. But politics was not, as the two CHP leaders – now dubbed by the local media “appointed” (Kemal Kilicdaroglu) vs “elected” (yet now ousted, Ozgur Ozel) – continued to b...

Under pressure

TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2026 · 3 responses

With the stroke of a gavel, CHP was returned to former chairman Kemal Kilicdarolgu, triggering a bitter and legally murky leadership battle. The politics author nevertheless thinks court-deposed chairman Ozgur Ozel has the upper hand, and if he loses the legal battle for the soul of the party, re...

Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)

TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2026

At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments. As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends...

Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?

TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026

What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...

Target up, forecast up, band out

TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026

In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...