GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concluded yesterday the testimony phase for the defendants in the so-called “central group,” accused of orchestrating an attempted coup in 2022. Among those who testified were former President Jair Bolsonaro and General Braga Neto. Regarding the ...

Slide Presentation - Poland Election Results: Political and Policy Implications

POLAND · Presentation · 11 Jun 2025

The election of Karol Nawrocki will usher in changes for Poland. What is the new administration's likely impact on policy over the next two and a half years and beyond? What does the outcome mean for the course of Polish politics? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "Poland Election Re...

Israel’s budget deficit narrowed to 5.0% of GDP in May; Stronger-than-planned tax revenues may offset above-budget defense spending, assuming Gaza de-escalation by Q3

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025

The Ministry of Finance released the May budget figures yesterday, and overall, the data looks solid—even though we’re still operating in a high-expenditure environment. The fiscal deficit for May came in at NIS 8.6 billion (~$2.5 billion), with the trailing 12-month deficit edging down slightly ...

Haddad should meet with Lula to discuss alternative measures to the IOF, Motta defended setting a cap on healthcare deductions in income tax filings, and Social Security Minister Queiroz will participate in a public hearing

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Jun 2025

Today, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is expected to meet with President Lula to discuss alternative measures to the IOF tax. On Sunday, Haddad said there will be an immediate recalibration of the IOF, including an 80% reduction in specific operations known as “risco sacado” and a reduction of ...

Economics: Labor data mirrors struggling economy

MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2025

Employment remains in a clear slowdown that began last year and aligned with the weakening of the economy as a whole. The employed population decreased -0.2% yoy in the first quarter and then increased 0.2% in April, bringing the cumulative slippage for the first four months of the year to an ann...

May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025

For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...

Tourism to Israel drops sharply in May amid missile threats and flight suspensions

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025

Tourism to Israel declined sharply in May, as the number of incoming visitors fell by 25.4% compared to April (seasonally adjusted), reaching only 95,000 arrivals. This figure is 67.4% lower than in May 2023, underscoring the ongoing impact of the war. The decline follows a gradual recovery earli...

Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer

TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025

Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...

Terror, uncertainty, paranoia

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...

Politics: Judicial elections—a setback for democracy and success for the 4T’s authoritarian impulses

MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2025

Mexico’s first ever judicial elections were held on June 1. While they were significant for a variety of reasons, there were no big surprises. The elections were the concretization of Morena, AMLO, and Claudia Sheinbaum’s judicial reform, justified as a way of correcting the “country’s universall...

The nationalization of João Campos and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

There is anticipation over the government’s submission to Congress of alternative measures to the IOF increase. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues its judgment on the liability of big tech platforms for third-party content posted on social media. The Court is also hearing depositions from ...

Can the bank of Jamaica declare Independence Day?

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

On Wednesday, May 21, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) made a surprise one-quarter point cut in the policy interest rate, namely the rate offered to deposit-taking institutions (DTI’s) on overnight placements, from 6 percent to 5.75. Justifying the cut, BOJ Governor Richard Byles noted that inflation co...

Some like it hot

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

The labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the new drop in the unemployment rate in April, after three quarters of stability. Our estimates suggest that labor market-driven pressures are likely to persist for quite some time. Even considering the economic slowdown projected by the Centra...

Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...

Haddad announced a series of measures to offset the IOF increase, the STF will hear from defendants in the coup d’état case, and the STF will resume deliberations on the civil liability of internet platforms on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

After a meeting with the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced a series of measures to offset the increase in the IOF tax. The package was announced late Sunday night, June 8. This week, the Supreme Federal Cour...