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During the debate, it was very clear that the pandemic is an uncomfortable topic for Jair Bolsonaro, just as corruption is for former President Lula. Lula did well in the first block. In the other two, Bolsonaro did better. On Wednesday, October 19, the Special Committee that debates the collecti...

Russia has lost 90,000 soldiers - reports

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 12 a Russian independent media project called iStories reported that 90,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, captured or gone missing in Ukraine in 2022. iStories said that Kremlin sources provided this information. In some cases wounds will be slight, and soldiers are compl...

Thus Spoke Zarathustra

TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2022

The AKP-MHP controlled Grand Assembly kicked off the winter session with a comprehensive media censorship bill, which aims to intimidate opposition voters and get rid of all content unpleasant for the regime. While we strongly protest the law and agree with the consensus that it may hurt the oppo...

Difficult CIS summit for Russia, CSTO role examined

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Oct 2022

On October 14, the CIS leaders’ summit started in Kazakhstan. It proved to be a testing summit for Russia, mainly on account of regional questions around security and hierarchies. Also within the CIS are the six nations that make up the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The CSTO alliance i...

First Russian draftees killed in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Oct 2022

On October 14 it was reported that some of those conscripted in September 2022 were killed 10 days after mobilization. Some of those drafted have been lawyers which is unusual. Those drafted are usually working class. Very few Muscovites have been drafted. Draftees are often from impoverished reg...

September’s CPI comes in above expectations

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

September’s CPI comes in above expectations Inflation in September increased by 0.2% m/m (expectations were for 0.1% while some local forecasters were expecting zero) and 4.6% y/y (similar to last month). Core inflation increased by 4.7% y/y in the past three months. Housing rental prices (OER) i...

GULF WEEKLY: GCC votes against annexation, oil demand revised down, Iraq picks president

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Oct 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC, IEA and EIA all revised down 2023 demand growth, and oil softened from last week’s surge. * Our analysis of the updated OPEC supply projections implies relatively flat quotas in 2023. * The US had offered to set a $...

Bolsonaro will be in Minas Gerais and Rio, Lula will be in Pernambuco, and the first presidential debate will be held on Sunday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2022

Bolsonaro will participate in a parade in Duque de Caxias (RJ) in the morning. In the afternoon, he will meet with the mayors of the state of Minas and the re-elected governor of Minas, Romeu Zema (Novo), in Belo Horizonte. Lula (PT) is still in the Northeast. He will be in Pernambuco today, wher...

NATO providing air defense to Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

On October 13 it was reported that US and its allies are rapidly giving air defense systems to Ukraine. The recent spate of Russian missile attacks has prompted this. The attacks killed 20 Ukrainian civilians and damaged infrastructure. Ukraine claimed to have shot down almost half of the Russian...

The MNB took action to stabilise the forint this morning

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Oct 2022

The Monetary Council announced early this morning a series of actions, with a view to stabilising the forint after a 6% slide against the euro since the Council's previous communications on September 27. The following measures were announced, with immediate effect: - The Bank's O/N credit rate wa...

Xi Jinping’s tough choices in the chip wars

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Oct 2022

I was very interested to read opposing analyses of the impact of the new U.S. policy toward the export of semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology to China — both from former Department of Defense analysts. One was from Gregory Allen, a CSIS analyst, and former Director of Strategy an...

Russian Governor of Kherson asks for civilians to be evacuated

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Oct 2022

On October 13 the Moscow-appointed official said he needs help moving civilians out as the Ukrainian Army is advancing. He said this on his Telegram channel, which suggests rising desperation. Vladimir Saldo complained about Ukrainian missile strikes. The Russian Army is fighting in Kherson. Ther...

Over the holiday Lula went to the Southeast and Northeast while Bolsonaro stayed in the Southeast, the latest poll shows signs of a stable electoral scenario, and the STJ will decide whether to suspend Alagoas Governor Paulo Dantas

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Oct 2022

Former President Lula was in Rio de Janeiro alongside Eduardo Paes. Then, he went to Salvador, Bahia. The PT's candidate Jerônimo Rodrigues is in the runoff round against ACM Neto (União Brasil) in the gubernatorial election in Bahia. Jair Bolsonaro went to Minas Gerais, where he participated in ...

Stabilization is getting tougher

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

For the second time this year, at 12 percent, the monthly inflation rate hit double digits. The first time was in August, the month of exchange-rate turbulence that took inflation to 16 percent. Even though the dollar appreciated against the bolivar by a mere 1.8 percent in September compared wit...

Interest rate on the MNB's 2-month deposit instrument rose moderately at today's tender

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2022

The MNB held its second weekly tender for its new 2-month deposit instrument today. The actual tenor of the depos will be shorter than two months, as the new placements will mature on December 1, the same way as the similar deposits made by banks a week ago. Banks handed in bids for HUF522bn, of ...