GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The São Paulo City Council approved the bill that authorizes it to join the privatization of Sabesp, the state company responsible for water and sewage services in the city. There were 37 votes in favor and 17 against. Next week will be busy in Brasília. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (P...

Moody’s increased the outlook for Brazil's sovereign debt from stable to positive, Lula broke electoral rules by calling for his supporters to vote for Boulos in São Paulo, and the São Paulo City Council votes on the Sabesp privatization

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 May 2024

Yesterday, the rating agency Moody's raised the outlook for Brazil's medium and long-term sovereign debt from stable to positive. The company, however, maintained its long-term issuer and unsecured government bond ratings at Ba2. Yesterday, trade unions organized an event for Labor Day. Lula expl...

Current account deficit narrowed in 1Q24

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 02 May 2024

According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the current account narrowed in 1Q24 to about $0.89 bn, while in 2023 its quarterly deficit varied from $1.6 bn to $3.4 bn. According to recent revisions the current account deficit reached almost $8.66 bn last year.In 1Q24, the trade surplus accounte...

The Central Bank maintains the monetary policy interest rate unchanged in May 2024

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 May 2024

For the sixth consecutive month since Dec 2023, the monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged. In May 2024, the monetary policy interest rate will remain at 7.0% annually. Also, the permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) and the interest-bearing deposit rate will rema...

A definitive new president

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

Indonesia’s Constitutional Court made a ruling on April 22, 2024, rejecting the challenges from the losing presidential candidates for a re-run of the presidential election. With that ruling, the Election Committee made its final decision on the presidential election result, with Prabowo Subianto...

Padilha meets with Senate leaders to discuss the joint session of Congress on vetoes, the CCJ should vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for vehicles, and the Senate should vote on the Perse bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Apr 2024

The Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, meets with Senate leaders to negotiate vetoes that should be analyzed in a joint session of Congress next week. There was going to be a session of Congress last week to analyze vetoes, but it was postponed due to a lack of consensus. The...

GDP somewhat stronger than expected in Q1, real wage growth very high in February

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

GDP grew by 0.8% qoq, 1.7% yoy on seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis in Q1, according to KSH's first estimate. Both figures represent material strengthening from Q4's upwardly revised 0% qoq, 0.5% yoy growth data. However, all this was only a moderate surprise: analysts, including us, expecte...

Corruption crackdown in Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2024

On April 29 the head of Nizhny Novgorod was arrested in Russian-occupied Ukraine on suspicion of stealing public funds. Oleg Lavrichev is head of his city council and a member of United Russia, the party that dominates the country. Lavrichev was supposed to supervise the distribution of food and ...

Counting on Luck

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

With the so-called New Fiscal Framework, the government hoped to gain credibility regarding the performance of public accounts through a promise to generate a dynamic of expenditures versus revenues consistent with stabilization of the federal debt. However, the fragility of its bases was evident...

Politics: Latest poll numbers show Gálvez failing to expand support even as the incumbent camp weakens

MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The latest GEA-ISA survey of registered voters contained some encouraging news for the opposition coalition. Support for Morena dropped by as much as 8 points between March and April. President López Obrador’s approval rating has fallen 12 points since September to one of his lowest readings in o...

The holiday this week reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, the Senate may vote on the Perse bill, and the CCJ may vote on the bill that resumes the mandatory insurance for land vehicles

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The federal holiday on Wednesday, May 1, reduces the pace of activities in Brasília, but there are still important events on the agenda. The payroll tax relief issue continues to resonate. This week, the Senate may vote on a bill that reformulates incentives for the events sector (PL nº 1,026/202...

Election Monitor III: National elections – growing uncertainty amid a rising desire for change

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

South Africa celebrated the 30th anniversary of the new dispensation on Saturday, April 27, 2024. The mood of the nation could hardly be more different than it was on April 27, 1994, when Nelson Mandela declared the triumph of the ANC’s decades of struggle against apartheid. The predominant major...

OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand...

Playing For Time

TURKEY · Report · 28 Apr 2024

Growth was likely positive in Q1, and should finish the year at around 3% with risks tilted to the upside, assuming a flat second half or that a major contraction will be avoided. We see growth slowing further in 2025, however. • Inflation, broadly in line with the consensus, should peak at ju...

S&P affirmed Hungary's BBB-/Stable sovereign debt rating

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Apr 2024

This happened on Friday, April 26, the first preset review date for any of the top three rating agencies, as regards their sovereign ratings for Hungary. Hungary has a split rating (see chart), S&P keeping the government's debt rating in the lowest investment-grade category since January 2023, wh...