GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 24 the Russian Children's Rights Commissioner said that Russia would return 29 children to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving Russia back 19 children. Maria Lvova Belova, who announced the deal, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for child abduction in 2023. Qatar brok...

José Raúl Mulino could run next week…the Supreme Court hinted yesterday

PANAMA · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

On April 25, just 10 days before the elections, Supreme Court Justice Olmedo Arrocha, who is handling the case of the unconstitutionality lawsuit against the Electoral Tribunal (TE) decision that allowed José Raúl Mulino to run as a presidential candidate, issued a public statement. In this state...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package

UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....

Kazakhstan macro: the budget still lacks tax revenue as the tenge remains strong

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance published the budgetary statistics for 1Q24, and it appears that the general trends are the same as in 2023—the tax revenue flow remains well behind the plan, while transfers to the republican budget from the National Fund are well ahead of it. The latter factor i...

The Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform outlined the details of the regulation of Tax Reform, Justice Zanin suspended sections of the law that extended the payroll tax exemption, and Wednesday, May 1, is a holiday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Yesterday, the Extraordinary Secretary for Tax Reform, Bernardo Appy, gave a long interview to explain the details of the bill submitted by the government to the National Congress on the regulation of Tax Reform. In other news, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Cristiano Zanin responded to the ...

Webinar Replay - Turkey: Fundamental change or business as usual?

TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2024

What does Erdogan's defeat in the municipal elections mean for Turkey? In response, will he rely on pragmatism or return to heterodoxy? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the implications of Erdogan's political losses for Turkey's macroeconomic and political outlook.

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual eco...

A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought

ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...

Ukraine receives first US ammo for months

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

On April 24 the US dispatched the first installment of the new aid package. The aid package passed the US Senate by an overwhelming majority, and Biden signed it. Within hours aid was on the way to Ukraine. It comes not a moment too soon for Ukraine. The US had identified the munitions and assets...

Ukraine pressures citizens abroad to come home to fight

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2024

On April 23 Kyiv ended consular services for military aged men (18-60) who are outside the country. The only exemption is for a travel document to allow a men to come back to Ukraine. This comes after Ukraine changed the law to allow more men to be drafted. As Ukrainian men abroad cannot renew vi...

The government is expected to submit the bills on Tax Reform regulation today, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2024

Today, the government will likely submit a bill to the National Congress with the regulation of Tax Reform. According to the Extraordinary Secretary of the Ministry of Finance for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, the regulation of tax reform will be made in two complementary bills and an ordinary bill. ...

MNB base rate reduced by 50bps today, in line with broad-based consensus expectation

HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

The base rate went down to 7.75% at today's regular rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. The monthly speed of the cut was thus reduced from March's 75bps and February's 100bps. Analyst widely expected this outcome; it was our prediction as well in the quarterly forecast report we release...

UK to give its largest aid package to Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

On April 23 the Prime Minister of the UK announced a USD 671 million package. Rishi Sunak is currently visiting Poland, which identifies with Ukraine and hosts more Ukrainian refugees than any other country. The UK is donating USD 3.7 billion to Ukraine this financial year. The latest British aid...

The CBCH is like a kingfisher in a speedboat

CHILE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Two consecutive positive surprises in the IMACEC were swiftly followed by an upward revision of the Central Bank’s 2024 GDP growth forecast. Still, the positive result was largely attributable to a milder-than-usual seasonal decline in economic activity, rather than to genuine growth. While macro...

A burst of Russian brutality

UKRAINE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Ukraine has since mid-March faced unprecedented air raids targeting energy infrastructure, unlike anything seen since the start of the war. In previous years, such as 2022-2023, Russian strategy focused on disrupting energy supplies, to cause nationwide blackouts. But now the focus has shifted to...