GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...

Fear of floating vs. fear of falling

CHILE · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 3 responses

The August IMACEC delivered a pretty big surprise -- and not a good one. Beyond the monthly volatility, economic activity has remained stagnant since late 2022, and the output gap continues to narrow. In August, retail sales recorded a negative monthly change for the eighth consecutive month. In ...

A mid-week macro update

TURKEY · Report · 01 Nov 2023 · 1 response

As we’ve noted in Sunday’s post, the econ author could not contribute his share to the Weekly report as he was in transit on Sunday – and hence, today’s post, which provides a quick rundown of recent macro developments, along with a few quick thoughts and impressions from his meetings while in Lo...

Avdiivka offensive amid depleted Russian artillery

UKRAINE · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Despite no significant territorial gains being reported, the intensity of the fighting escalated along all fronts throughout September and October. Ukrainian forces continued their push south toward Tokmak, and have been gradually encircling the ruins of Bakhmut. However, since the beginning of O...

Politics: AMLO’s extended verbal onslaught against the Judiciary takes the form of budget cuts, cancelling trusts and the threat of a major constitutional reform

MEXICO · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Last week, Congress approved the administration’s proposal to cancel 13 out of 14 of the trusts of the Federal Judiciary, just the latest episode in the extended history of President López Obrador's offensive against this branch. However, the executive’s attacks on the judiciary have intensified ...

A rise in the political temperature

INDONESIA · Report · 31 Oct 2023 · 1 response

Indonesia has entered a period of rising political temperature in the run-up to the general elections. The registration for candidates for president and vice president began on October 19, 2023; the first two pairs, Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar, and Ganjar Pranowo and Machfud MD, register...

The current situation concerning the rejection of the approved concession contract with Minera Panama

PANAMA · Report · 31 Oct 2023

After a week of protests, President Cortizo announced a public consultation and the presentation of a mining moratorium bill in the National Assembly. In less than 24 hours, the Electoral Tribunal declared that there are no conditions to organize a public consultation. Protests and discontent con...

A polarized country and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

The offshore and exclusive funds bill begins analysis in the Senate. Fernando Haddad and Arthur Lira meet with party leaders to discuss the ICMS subsidy bill. The holiday on Thursday, November 2, reduces activity in the Legislature. In the economy, the highlight is the Central Bank meeting to dec...

Political and economic ups and downs

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Costa Rica’s political conditions remain similar, characterized by confrontational relationships like those prevailing since the beginning of this administration. Positive appraisals of President Rodrigo Chaves have declined, and although more than half the population still approves of his perfor...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Fiscal discipline doesn’t sit well with either Lula or the Centrão parties. Without a government policy to put the country on the path to sustainable economic growth, with his popularity sinking and dependence growing on the Centrão to win approval of any measures in Congress, Lula has abandoned ...

Lula said that the government is unlikely to reach the zero deficit target for 2024, the offshore bill begins analysis in the Senate, and there is a federal holiday on Thursday (November 2)

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Oct 2023

President Lula's statement, last Friday, October 27, that the government is “unlikely” to meet the fiscal target of zero deficit in 2024 should continue to resonate throughout this week. Minister Fernando Haddad did not comment. The bill that deals with the taxation of exclusive and offshore fund...

Monetary loosening likely to be postponed until hostilities subside

ISRAEL · Report · 30 Oct 2023

1. Governor Yaron has strongly emphasized that monetary loosening will be postponed until after shekel stabilization. 2. The shekel could stabilize in the short run (or even appreciate), assuming more certainty regarding a limited scope of the conflict. 3. Recent data underline Israel’s pos...

Armenia ready to give Azerbaijan (and Turkey) what they want without a fight

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

While the world is focused on the Middle East, there has been a flurry of events in the South Caucasus that continue to fire the imagination of those that still anticipate an imminent joint Azeri/Turkish invasion of sovereign Armenia to join Turkey and Azerbaijan by land. And why not? There were ...

Crowd storms Russian airport

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Oct 2023

On October 29 people in Dagestan burst onto the airport runway in a failed attempt to stop a flight from Israel landing at Makhachkala Airport. The people were protesting against Israel's attacks on Gaza. Dagestan is a Muslim majority republic of Russia. They were angry that Israelis can come to ...

Azerbaijan-Turkey military exercises

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2023

On October 23 the two countries began three days of joint drills. The two countries speak almost the same language and often boast of their fraternal relationship. 3,000 troops took part in the drills, which are named in honor of the founder of the Turkish Republic, Ataturk. Some of the drills to...