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Next week, Lira will hold a meeting with Fernando Haddad to discuss the bill that deals with the ICMS subsidy. The text had been sent through a provisional measure but was poorly received by Congress. There continues to be resistance regarding the content of the article. We will have another holi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan: Steady as it goes (for now)

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

This report on Tajikistan completes the task of providing detailed chart packs on individual countries in the CCA region. Tajikistan’s economy has performed better than anticipated this year with GDP growth having expanded by 8.2 percent over the first eight months of the year. While traditio...

Money, money, money…it´s not always sunny. The contract with Minera Panama approved by legislators and ratified by Cortizo, but the positive impact on public finances is overshadowed by nationwide protests against the contract

PANAMA · Report · 27 Oct 2023

The end of the year presents a challenge for Panama's public finances as the likelihood of meeting fiscal targets diminishes due to lower-than-expected revenue collection. The final quarter's performance, hinging on the Panama Canal, remains critical to closing this gap. Currently, the government...

The MPC delivers the consensus again

TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate by another 500 bps today to 35%, in line with the consensus forecast. As for the content of the statement, the paragraph on inflation presents a mixed – and a broadly agreeable -- picture on the inflation outlook, with “the “pass-through from tax regulations...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

In response to the recent excessive FX market volatility, the Russian authorities imposed some additional elements of capital controls. Since mid-October, the main 43 exporters are obliged to repatriate not less than 80% of their export revenues and then to sell on the local market not less than ...

The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds, Senator Braga presented his report on Tax Reform, and the Senate approved the payroll tax exemption bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2023

The House approved the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds. The text will now go to the Senate for further analysis. This is an important victory for Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Yesterday, another topic on the government's priority agenda made progress. Senator...

NBU slashes prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, keeps "working" rates steady

UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Today, on October 26th, the NBU Board made an unexpected decision, slashing the prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, effective from October 27th. While the market did anticipate a rate cut, analysts had predicted a more modest 2 ppt reduction. Despite the significant cut in the prime rate, the NBU essenti...

Trade deficit declines sharply

ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

September witnessed a sharp reduction in the headline trade deficit to 1.5bn from 3.2bn in both August 23 and September 2022. Industrial exports are up 8% m/m in October, while imports declined: consumer imports by 3.5% (sa), imports of raw materials by 1.4%, and imports of investment goods by 6....

Uzbekistan: Central Bank keeps rates unchanged, doubles down on hawkish message

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept the policy rate unchanged at 14.0 percent. This is the fifth consecutive decision to keep the policy rate at this level since the last 100bpt cut in Mar 2023. After raising the refinancing rate by 300bpts to 17.0 percent in Mar 2022 due to elevated geopolitical...

Senator Braga will discuss his report on Tax Reform today, the Senate will vote on the payroll tax relief bill, and the House will vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2023

Today, Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM) holds a press conference to present the general lines of his report on Tax Reform. The text will be formally presented today at the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ). In the Senate plenary, the bill that deals with payroll tax relief will be put to a v...

Turkish parliament to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession, but why?

TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2023

I’d given up on positive developments in Turkey’s relations with US and NATO, because on 21 October President Erdogan flatly refused to present the legislation needed to ratify Swedish accession, on account of American disrespect for his various requests, Quran burning incidents and the refusal b...

The House may vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill, Senator Braga should submit his report on Tax Reform today, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax relief bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2023

The House will try to vote on the bill that deals with the taxation of offshore and exclusive funds. The bill is part of the government's priorities to increase revenue next year. Minister Alexandre Padilha said that another priority for the government is Tax Reform. Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM...

MNB base rate down 75 bps to 12.25% today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Oct 2023

Neither us, expecting 12%, nor the median analyst expectation of 12.5% have proven to be right. The reduction of the monthly pace of the sterilisation rate cut seems to be meant to indicate that: - for the next few months, the yoy inflation rate will still very likely fall following a steep trend...

Senator Braga will submit his report on Tax Reform on October 24, the House may vote on the offshore and exclusive funds bill, and Congress will analyze presidential vetoes on October 26

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2023

Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM), rapporteur of the Tax Reform Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) at the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate, will submit his report on Tuesday, October 24. According to the agenda, the vote in the CCJ is scheduled for November 7. This week, t...

The government is trying to vote on the bill that institutes a tax on closed-end and offshore funds, the STF may vote on the FGTS correction case this week, and Friday is the deadline for Lula to veto the Time Frame bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Oct 2023

This week, the government is working toward voting on a bill in the House that deals with the taxation of closed-end and offshore funds (PL nº 4,173/23). Another important topic for the market is the adjudication of the correction of the FGTS accounts. The case will be on the Supreme Federal Cour...