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The following screenshot, from a Twitter post by a Green Party member of the European Parliament, one of the leading critics of Hungary's Fidesz government there, shows finance minister Varga who, by saying what he is quoted here to have said, essentially vetoed the EU's common borrowing action f...

The CCJ begins analysis of the Transition PEC, the STF should adjudicate the cases on the rapporteur amendments, and the House Committee on Public Security may vote on a salary raise for police officers

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Dec 2022

The rapporteur of the PEC is Senator Alexandre Silveira (PSD-MG). The two-year period seems to be gathering a consensus in the National Congress, but the value remains undecided. Lula's (PT) allies put together an agreement for the PEC to be enacted by December 16. Tomorrow, the Supreme Federal C...

Latvia shuts Russian TV channel

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

On December 6 Dozhd was closed down because it was allegedly threatens Latvian national security. The Latvian government cited several violations of the broadcasting rules by the Russian language channel. The last day on air will be December 8. The channel said that Crimea was Russian and the Rus...

Inflation quickened to 8%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Dec 2022

The headline inflation rate rose to 8% in November, up from 7.7% in October. Price increases continued to show momentum with the month-on-month rate rising 0.9%, driven by both higher food prices, particularly vegetables, and services like public transport and restaurants. Core inflation similarl...

Russia political/pandemic update: life as an everlasting special operation

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

Even though the COVID-19 pandemic no longer remains an issue in Russia, it still affects the country’s matters, albeit sometimes in a rather peculiar way, such as what happened recently in China and with the oil price. As the zero tolerance COVID policy in China and expectations of its weaker eco...

Economics: The AMLO government continues to pursue inefficient and costly policies on important fronts

MEXICO · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The programs prioritized by the current government have performed poorly according to multiple evaluations, including those of the public agency Coneval and the most recent INDEP tool for evaluating the effectiveness of social-development-related public programs that has been produced for several...

Can the number of demonstrations increase and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Dec 2022

The Senate begins the analysis of the Transition PEC. The PL caucus will decide who will run for the Senate presidency in February. The most likely candidate is former Minister Rogério Marinho. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on the basic interest rate (Selic). In the Judi...

Explosions at Russian air bases

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

On December 5 there were explosions at 2 Russian air bases hundreds of km from the Ukrainian Border. At least 3 people have been killed and it was claimed that 2 nuclear capable bombers were damaged. The Defense Ministry has neither confirmed nor denied the report. The Astra Telegram news channel...

Fuel shortage has become serious, subsidised fuel prices will likely have to go

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Dec 2022

By last night, about a quarter of domestic petrol stations has run out of petrol and diesel, and the situation is threatening to get even worse. We have had this coming for a while. MOL, currently the only wholesaler of fuel in Hungary, has been saying for several months that its capacities are o...

Inflation peaks, where to now?

TURKEY · Report · 05 Dec 2022

Consumer prices increased by 2.9%, m/m, in November, broadly in line with forecasts (consensus as well as ours), with the 12-month rate thus easing -- for the first time since May 2021 -- to 84.4%, from 85.5% in October. The PPI inflation recorded its lowest monthly reading in 29 months, rising b...

Russia Nobel Prize winner says Ukraine War cannot end by talks

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2022

The laureates said at an awards ceremony in Germany that the war could not end through diplomacy whilst Putin is in office. Irina Scherbakova was the co-founder of the Russian human rights organization Memorial. But after Putin is gone there will be a negotiated peace she said but that requires U...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded + Bahrain positive outlook, Abu Dhabi GDP, PIF $17bn loan, Qatar-Germany LNG deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain quota levels next week, although a cut is possible. * Inflation has eased to 4.0% in the GCC, the lowest since May, with rent replacing food as the main driver. * PIF secured a $17bn 7...

The deadline for the Transition PEC should be one or two years at the most and the value will not exceed R$ 130 billion, the STF approved the Lifetime Review yesterday, and the Transition PEC is expected to be approved in the Senate next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2022

President Lula's presence in Brasilia helped guide the political agreement around the Transition Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). He is expected to speak to the press today around 11:30 a.m. In addition to the PEC, he will likely be asked about the ministerial team. Yesterday, by 6 votes ...

South Africa's Risk Heightened While Ramaphosa Considers his Future

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 02 Dec 2022

President Ramaphosa finds himself in a crisis riddled with complexity. He has few options, but none is exciting or under his total control. When a few months back, Arthur Fraser, South Africa’s x-spy master, leaked the theft of US dollars from Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala Farm, the President dismissed...

The 2023 NFPS budget and third quarter fiscal data hide revenues and expenditures. The economy continues to accelerate.

PANAMA · Report · 01 Dec 2022

The overall government budget for next year is US 27.6 billion. Because of the state accounting system in Panama, this figure includes US 3.2 billion for state-owned banks (which are independently managed and not subject in practical terms to budget restrictions), as well as US 3.5 billion in int...