GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

19.12.22 Core inflation accelerates to 5.3% Inflation in November was in line with expectations but the underlying trends remain worrisome. Core inflation accelerated to 5.3% y/y from 5.0% in October, with rental prices (OER) up 5.9% from 5.6%. Other services also accelerated. Housing purchase pr...

Intense Russian bombardment as Putin meets army chiefs

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 17 Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Poltava and other cities. Ukraine says 40 missiles were fired at Kyiv and 37 were shot down. Ukraine is happy about its increasingly sophisticated air defense. Nonetheless it cannot stop all missiles and drones. Russia was attacking en...

Russian diplomat in Africa injured by letter bomb

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Dec 2022

On December 16 a letter bomb in Central African Republic (CAR) wounded the head of the Russian cultural center. The letter addressed to him said, ''It was from all the French: the Russians to get out of Africa.'' The diplomat had already received death threats. The head of the Wagner mercenary gr...

It’s Only the Beginning

VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022

After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...

Kazakhstan macro: The reality may look somewhat better than statistics show

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Despite several shocks, as well as elevated and uneven inflation, the Kazakh economy has performed relatively well, having weathered mini-storms associated with scheduled maintenance work on the country’s two main oilfields and problems with the CPC. At a glance, it looks as though in November, t...

Ukraine defends the east as Russia warns West against arms shipments

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

On December 16 Ukraine was successfully defending itself in the Donbas. Russia is trying to take Bakhmut. On December 15 Ukraine said there were 23 air strikes and 4 missile strikes against Kharkiv but minimal damage was done. On December 15 Kherson was deprived of all electricity due to Russian...

Webinar replay: Monetary policy balancing act: Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2022

Four countries ⁠— Brazil, Chile, Hungary, and Turkey ⁠— exhibit the full range of dilemmas faced by central banks in emerging markets. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our analysts as they discuss how these countries will navigate their monetary policy challenges going into 2023 in ...

Two more ministers of the STF still need to vote on the rapporteur’s amendments case, the Senate should vote on the bill that provides for new rules for the rapporteur’s amendments, and the House should vote on the Transition PEC on Tuesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2022

So far, nine ministers have voted on the rapporteur’s amendments case. The score is 5-4 against the rapporteur's amendments. Ministers Ricardo Lewandowski and Gilmar Mendes still need to vote. Minister Rosa Weber, president of the STF, postponed the conclusion of the trial to next Monday, followi...

Service price inflation continues

ISRAEL · Report · 16 Dec 2022

November’s CPI came in at 0.1% m/m and 5.3% y/y, in line with market expectations. Core inflation accelerated to 5.3% y/y from 5.0% last month as housing rental prices (OER) increased by 0.6% m/m and accelerated to 5.9% from 5.6%.

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Dec 2022

The price cap on Russian oil, which the Western countries imposed recently (currently set at $60), caused only minor disruption for the market (if any) as Urals trades currently below this level. Markets capped the Urals price already long ago as the discount between Brent and Urals widened soon ...

The revised statistics suggested seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP grew Q-o-Q

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2022

According to Rosstat’s revised numbers, the Russian GDP contracted in 3Q22 not by 4.0% as an earlier flash estimate showed, but by 3.7%. Rosstat also showed that the seasonally adjusted 3Q22 GDP was up versus the previous quarter (around 0.4%). It means that technically, Russia was not yet in rec...

The elected government is having trouble moving forward with the Transition PEC, 10 more ministers of the STF must vote on the rapporteur’s amendments case, and the bill to amend the state-owned company law may be put to a vote in the Senate today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2022

At the moment, the government does not have the 308 votes needed to approve the PEC. The most controversial points — the value of R$ 168 billion and the 2-year term — continue to be problematic for legislators. The judgment of the rapporteur's amendments (RP-9) in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) ...

Belarus carries out combat readiness inspections

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 14 Dec 2022

On December 13 Belarus announced the move. Ukraine is keeping an eye on the situation. It could be that Belarus is worrying Ukraine in order to oblige Ukrainians to guard their northern frontier and thereby take the pressure off the Russians in the east. Belarus did this earlier in 2022. Civilian...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...

Projections for 2023

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Dec 2022

Before presenting the projections for 2023 (there’s no way to estimate numbers for 2024 with any security), we express two caveats. First, the GDP gap is still significantly positive (with the unemployment rate below the NAIRU), and this might require keeping the SELIC rate at 13.75% throughout 2...