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Rosstat reported another week of deflation as in seven days ending on August 22 the consumer price index fell by 0.15% w-o-w. It brought the MTD deflation to 0.38%. Inflation YTD decelerated to 10.56%. It is likely that in August, deflation could exceed 0.5% m-o-m and bring down the y-o-y inflati...

Lower-than-budgeted revenue for the first two quarters, the search for independent presidential hopefuls begins, and the populist approach to the social crisis continues at a slower pace

PANAMA · Report · 24 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The fiscal balance for the NFPS during the first six months of the year showed an increase in revenue in real terms and reductions in current and investment expenditure, also in real terms, compared with 2021. Current savings were negative (0.35% of GDP) but better than the -0.8% of last year. Th...

Ciro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, the Federal Police carried out an operation against businessmen who support Bolsonaro, and two more polls on the presidential election will be published today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Aug 2022

The atmosphere of the interview with Ciro was friendlier than in the interview with President Jair Bolsonaro. Ciro insisted on presenting numbers and detailing proposals, mentioning his government plan, which is the subject of a book he published about two years ago. This made his interview tiri...

Bolsonaro was interviewed by Globo’s Jornal Nacional last night, Ciro will be interviewed today, and Lula gave an interview to the international press yesterday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Aug 2022

The main topics discussed in Bolsonaro’s interview were the electoral system, his relationship with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the pandemic, the economy, the environment, his alliance with the center, and education. In his final remarks, Bolsonaro said that the country has gone through toug...

Daughter of pro-Putin nationalist thinker killed in Moscow

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Aug 2022

On August 22 Daria Dugina was assassinated. It is thought the bomb that blew up her car was intended to kill her father, who is a pro-Putin nationalist philosopher. Alexander Dugin was due to travel in the car and at the last moment decided not to. Russia has blamed Ukraine for the slaying. Ukrai...

China increases purchase of Russian hydrocarbons

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

On August 22 Bloomberg published data from the Chinese Customs service showing that China bought USD 35 billion of Russian oil, gas and coal in March-July 2022. Over the same period in 2022 China bought USD 20 billion of these Russian fuels. The increased amount spent is a reflection of price inc...

The Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy in Brazil

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

It is known that economically mature countries tend to have low neutral interest rates. The causes are also known, ranging from the demographic transition to the lower investment rate, and it is necessary to understand how monetary policy operates when the interest rate in equilibrium approaches ...

Fiscal policy switched to emergency mode

HUNGARY · Report · 22 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It was only a month ago that we raised our end-2022 consumer inflation forecast to the upper teens, simultaneously improving the outlook for growth, predicting robust annual GDP growth for this year. But forecasts do not have a long life these days. We now see CPI-inflation even higher, right aro...

BoI surprises with a 0.75% rate hike

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Aug 2022

Rates moved 0.75% higher on August 22, to 2.0%, with the monetary statement noting the acceleration in inflation in July (above the upper bound and broad based), the robust growth print in Q2 2022 of 6.8% and the strong level of activity in July, the tight labor market (the employment rate is abo...

Real estate cooling drags economic recovery

CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2022

Industrial output grew 3.5% y/y in January-July, up 0.1 pps from H1. In January-July, investment rose 5.7% y/y, down 0.4 pps from H1. In particular, the investment growth rate in July was down 2.4 pps from June. High infrastructure investment has been flattened by reduced real estate investment. ...

Electoral campaigns will start on TV and radio on Friday, the first debate between presidential candidates will take place this Sunday, and Lula has started making moves toward groups that are closer to Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2022

While having a good amount of TV time during the elections is important in communicating with voters, having the most TV time does not always guarantee electoral success, especially in presidential races. The presidential debate will be held jointly with Band, TV Cultura, UOL and Folha de S.Paulo...

Russian sovereign debt: The primary market may reopen in autumn

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

The fiscal situation in Russia deteriorated significantly in the middle of the year, and we expect the nation’s budget deficit to reach R1.2-1.5 trln for FY22. Despite the fact that the main source of funding the deficit is the National Wealth Fund, we don’t rule out that the Finance Ministry may...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Aug 5 NC KMG: In 1H22 KazMunayGas increased oil production (including gas condensate) by 0.3% y-o-y and gas production by 0.8% y-o-y Aug 10 NCOC: Oil production has resumed at the Kashagan field, suspended due to a gas leak at one of the facilities Aug 11 Energy Ministry: Oil production at the Ka...

The TSE announced the TV times for each presidential candidate, Lula and Bolsonaro have started addressing their government plans, and the presidential candidates will be interviewed next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Lula (PT) will have the longest time: 3 minutes and 39 seconds plus 286 30-second ads. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) will be entitled to 2 minutes and 38 seconds and 207 ads. Lula said that the main Brazilian public companies will not be privatized. He cited Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, Caixa Econ...

Russia reinforces Kherson

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Aug 2022

Ukraine is building up forces for its stated objective to retake Kherson. Pundits doubt that Ukraine can retake it with infantry. However, Russia is moving in more troops to Kherson. Some of these are elite paratroopers. Russia now has about 20,000 troops in Kherson. Ukraine has taken villages ne...