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On August 8 the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian naval air base. Russian sources acknowledged one person was killed and several were wounded. But the Russian government then said that there were no casualties. According to some sources there were 13 explosions. Russia admitted that there was...

No Russian crude oil is currently flowing into Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

We apologise for raising the flag the second time today on something that happened Hungary. Normally, events should be on holiday at this time of the year, but somehow this is not the time for a calm and balanced summer recess. So the thing is that, as reported today, the usually continuous impor...

Bolsonaro participated in an event at the Febraban yesterday, Lula will participate in a debate at the Fiesp today, and the TSE denied the Ministry of Defense access to documents from the 2014 and 2018 elections

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The Febraban said that it does not like high interest rates, would like predictability and that it is willing to establish dialog, while President Jair Bolsonaro said he wants transparency in the voting process and criticized the PT. Today, former President Lula will participate in a debate at th...

Iranian satellite launched by Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

On August 9 the satellite was launched from a Kazakh space station that is run by Russia. It is suspected that this might help Russia to ameliorate its surveillance of Ukraine. The Soyuz rocket carried a Khayyam satellite that is Iranian made. It is now in orbit. Tehran has not criticized Russia ...

July consumer inflation at 2.3% mom, 13.7% yoy; the MNB has been vindicated

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Local analysts, expecting 13% yoy for the headline CPI-inflation rate of July, apparently underestimated the upward potential. The MNB did better with its 13-14% yoy forecast range. Anyway, the figures look quite ugly. The leading driver was food, up 4.1% mom, 27% yoy, a very unseasonal phenomeno...

2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...

Ukraine announces a unit of Russian defectors

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

Kyiv is keen to let the media know that the Ukrainian Army has recruited Russian dissidents. Some of them are Prisoners of War who have been allowed to change sides. They are called the Freedom of Russia Legion. Some of them traveled to Ukraine via third countries. The number of soldiers in the F...

The government’s social aid programs begin, tomorrow is the deadline for Bolsonaro to sanction the LDO, and latest poll shows the smallest gap between Lula and Bolsonaro

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2022

The Auxílio Brasil payments will rise from R$ 400 to R$ 600, and the gas voucher will be paid at R$110. This is the government's main hope to improve its popularity ratings. The LDO was approved by Congress on July 12. Based on the premises defined by the LDO, the government will send the Federal...

Ukrainian nuclear power plant damaged in fighting

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Aug 2022

On August 6 Ukraine said that Russia has been using the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as a military base and firing on Ukrainian positions from there. Ukraine does not fire back at the plant for fear of causing a nuclear catastrophe. The plant has sustained major damage but it is unclear who c...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+’s tiny taper, Saudi's large Q2 fiscal surplus, Kuwait heads to elections

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Aug 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ tapered by just 100k b/d but rising US stocks helped knock prices to a six-month low. * Iran nuclear talks are back on in Vienna, in perhaps the final opportunity for a deal. * PMIs remain strong in July in Qatar, S...

Monetary Policy Without a Fiscal Anchor

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Aug 2022

The Central Bank’s formal independence was incontestably a great achievement. But this is only a necessary condition to control inflation. The high risk premiums due to the government’s failure to satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint will lead to unsustainable interest rates and high infla...

What to do about dry leather

VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Aug 2022

Legend has it that President Antonio Guzmán Blanco, during one of the three separate presidential terms he served in the late 19th century, likened Venezuela to "a piece of dry leather”: just as soon as you manage to flatten out one edge with your foot, another edge will curl up. (The Spanish ori...

Russia political pandemic update: Russia-West stand-off to intensify

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Aug 2022

It looks as though after more than five months of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, more time is needed either to sort out issues associated with the everlasting dispute between Russia and the West (the US in particular) or to just cut off relations with the “collective West.” The Russ...

A series of provisional measures will be analyzed in the House, Senator Simone Tebet’s VP may be announced today, and the Copom meets to decide on the new interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Aug 2022

On Wednesday, the Senate is expected to vote on the provisional measures that may be put to a vote in the House today. Among them are MP nº 1.108/22, which regulates teleworking; and MP nº 1,109/22, which authorizes the adoption of different labor rules in situations of states of emergency. Senat...

Economics: Various domestic factors and US slowdown prompt revision of 2022 and 2023 estimates

MEXICO · Report · 01 Aug 2022

So far this year, the international economy has been rocked by a range of factors including mounting inflation, with especially pronounced gains in the prices of foods, energy and other commodities, higher interest rates than had been anticipated, uncertainty, and financial market volatility. The...