GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On March 19 the Central Bank of Russia raised the key rate for the first time since 2018. Rising inflation and food prices obliged the CBR to change its monetary policy. The benchmark was gone up from 4.25% to 4.5%.

Lukashenka names two possible successors

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

On March 19 Lukashenka for the first time ever publicly discussed two potential replacement for him as a president. He named the ex health minister Uladzimer Karanik and the ex Interior Minister Yury Karayev. Both are under US sanctions.Why does Lukashenka think either of these men might be worth...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil pulls back, Saudi GDP recovers in Q4, Bahrain breaches debt ceiling

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Mar 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dropped sharply after a five-month rally, and the IEA published its medium-term outlook. *Iran’s president criticized hardliners' obstructing efforts to secure US sanctions relief. There is still time for progress be...

Covid watch (3)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2021

Covid19 cases jumped again this week, with the case count reaching a record high of 7,103 today and the national weekly average rising by over 50%. The alert level is particularly high in Metro Manila which accounts for about half of the new cases and where hospital bed occupancy has been creepin...

Turkey's economy at the crossroads

TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2021

Our live webinar features Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada, with guest speaker Professor Asaf Savas Akat, as they discuss Turkey's current economic and political situation as well as its long-term challenges. This webinar was moderated by Tim Ash, Senior EM Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Man...

Russia withdraws ambassador from the US

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Mar 2021

On March 17 Russia recalled its ambassador from the United States. This was in protest at Biden's saying that Putin is a killer. Biden also said that Russia would ''pay a price'' for interfering in the US election and trying to help Trump win. US intelligence published a report concluding that Ru...

COVID-19 and poverty in Turkey

TURKEY · Report · 17 Mar 2021

This Special Brief by our political analyst is an attempt to reconcile macro-economic data that shows an economy that has suffered minor-to-moderate harm from the year-long COVID-19 epidemic and the rather conflicting information coming out of numerous polls and anecdotal sources suggesting pover...

Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?

ECUADOR · Report · 16 Mar 2021

The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

Election race is polarized, while recovery temporarily pauses

PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2021 · 2 responses

The presidential race has grown polarized, according to the most recent opinion polls. Although this is a surprise, in our January Forecast we suggested that this could happen during the last leg of the campaign. We described three possible scenarios: first, a strong winner emerging (with George...

Politics: Women’s condition, demands and movement

MEXICO · Report · 15 Mar 2021

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had at least a full year in which to rethink his mistake of having come out against the largest wave of women’s rights protests in the nation’s history. Following months of demonstrations sparked by especially gruesome murders of young women and girls and a l...

A Higher Interest Rate and Economic Stagnation

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 15 Mar 2021

During the second wave of COVID contagion, which is working to contract the economy through spontaneous social distancing, the risk premiums have been rising (steepening slope of the yield curve and weakening of the exchange rate), and the Central Bank is poised to raise the interest rate. Added ...

The progress of reforms and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Mar 2021

This Monday, the Emergency Amendment will be promulgated. The government will then draft the Provisional Measure for stimulus payments. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said that he expects the report on Tax Reform to be presented this week. On Wednesday, Congress will analyze presidential vetoes. In the econ...

Ukraine to nationalize Motor Sich

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Mar 2021

On March 11 it was announced that Kyiv wants to buy the aerospace company. At the moment Chinese companies own most of the shares. Ukraine considers the company vital to national defense. The chief of the Security and Defense Council said that Motor Sich needs to be taken back by Ukraine. Shareho...

Covid watch (2)

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Mar 2021

The uptrend in new covid19 cases continued this week with the case count exceeding 4,500 on Friday. New cases rose 46% week-on-week based on 7-day averages with Metro Manila seeing much higher case growth. The overall positivity rate is now over 10% and the reproduction number estimated at 1.2 fr...

Inflation continues to slow

VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

Inflation slowed to 16 percent month on month in February, down from 50 percent in January and below our forecast of 34 percent. Driving the slowdown were government austerity and exchange rate stability. In our central forecast scenario, we assume that the government will continue to dampen i...