GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In this, the second part of our coverage of the confrontation between President López Obrador and his party on one side, and the country’s electoral authorities on the other, we look at how much the governing camp has raised the stakes in this dispute and is likely to continue to do so well after...

Second wave of infections aggravates social and political conflict

ARGENTINA · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The decision of the Economic Minister in February to slow the pace of devaluation on the official exchange market in order to reduce the rate of inflation has failed so far. Actually, in March the rate of inflation jumped to 4.8% from 3.6%, and some early indicators show that it is not falling in...

It was sort of a dull week, for a change

TURKEY · Report · 18 Apr 2021

Domestic politics are utterly boring for investors and multinational businesses, and suicidally depressive for those who make a living covering them. The never-changing fact of life is the steady decline in poll ratings of AKP+MHP, attended by ever-less effective attempts to spin the agenda to im...

A second wave of Covid-19 in India

INDIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Through 2020, sero-prevalence data was showing a large-scale spread of the disease within India. Alongside this, a large surge of Covid-19 related deaths was not visible. The analysis of excess deaths data showed that the fingerprints of Covid-19 in death -- male, elderly, co-morbidities, urban -...

Economic recovery underway, amid higher inflation

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Apr 2021

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the Dominican Republic in February showed positive y/y growth, of 1.1%, which offset the -1.8% contraction seen in January. Accumulated growth in January-February 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, was -0.3%. The expansion, mainly in con...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells pipelines, US-UAE arms deal approved, Kuwaiti former PM detained

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF sees the fiscal breakevens improving relative to 2019 in all bar Kuwait and Bahrain. * It forecasts a surprisingly wide range of oil and non-oil recoveries across the region. * Israeli sabotage overshadowed US-Ira...

Optimism About Exports

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Apr 2021

This year, Brazilian exports should attain their best result since 1997, which marks the start of the historical series. There are three reasons for optimism: (i) the better perspectives for global growth, as reported in the “World Economic Outlook” published this month; (ii) the rising prices of...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 12, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2021

Covid cases continue to rise rapidly, while the pace of vaccination has slowed. The tourism industry is now faced with the twin challenges of rising case numbers and expiration of the government-sponsored short-term pay program. After tomorrow’s cabinet meeting, President Erdogan is expected to a...

Signs of FX intervention tapering support shekel appreciation

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Apr 2021

* Pressure for shekel appreciation is mounting as the economy recovers rapidly (hi-tech services and IPOs are surging) and the BoI reduces FX intervention. * Business sector confidence improved sharply in March, with orders increasing in industry and services. * We expect March CPI to re...

Encouraging second round results

ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Apr 2021

When 93.46% of votes have been counted --from which just 4% seem to have problems, Guillermo Lasso leads the election with 52.72% of votes while Andres Arauz has 47.28%. Lasso wins in all Andean and Amazon Provinces (except Sucumbios), while Arauz dominates in the coastal region (except Galapagos...

Consumer inflation breaks 8% ceiling, further prime rate increase looks inevitable

UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Apr 2021

Our CPI estimate for 2021 was one of the most pessimistic among forecasting agencies. Still the reality appeared to be even more relentless. In March CPI sped up to 1.7% m/m (we projected 1.2% m/m) and touched 8.5% year-on-year. For 3m 2021 consumer inflation reached +4.1% ytd. Soaring food price...

Atypical disinflation in March

VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2021

March inflation slowed to 7 percent month-on-month, from 16 percent in February. That extraordinarily low reading owes partly to a fiscal policy-driven cash crunch as demand for bolivars to pay annual taxes collided with unusually low government spending, causing dollar prices to fall against the...

Balance of payments remains stable in 1Q21

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2021

Russia’s balance of payments continued to evolve in 1Q21 and looked relatively healthy. The current account surplus reached $16.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $24.4 bn. Even though these numbers are lower than in 2Q20 ($23.9 bn and $33.1 bn), they looked solid. Note that Russia’s oil exports...

Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy

TURKEY · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This is a joint report, co-written by GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada and GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations with the UAE...

Turkey-Gulf re-engagement: Both stand to benefit but it won’t be easy

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2021

This report was co-written by GlobalSource Partners GCC Country Analyst Justin Alexander and GlobalSource Partners Turkey Political Analyst Atilla Yesilada. * Amid its latest crisis, Turkey could benefit from financing, trade and tourism from the Gulf, particularly if it can patch up relations...