GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The CBR decided to keep the key rate unchanged (at 7.5%) earlier in Jun but sent a hawkish signal to the market. The latter lifted the OFZ yield curve higher. The 10-year papers are now traded above 11%. The last time this level was in the spring of 2022. Many investors see a threat of potential ...

The rapporteur for Tax Reform submitted his report on the text, next week will be slow in Congress, and the TSE should adjudicate the case against former President Bolsonaro next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jun 2023

Yesterday, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform proposal, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), submitted his report. He said that Arthur Lira wants to vote on the proposal by July 7. The text did not change much in relation to what was already presented. We will have a quieter week in Congress next week. There...

Former BIS / US Fed executive and Economics Professor named BSP governor

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2023

We expect financial markets here and abroad to welcome the appointment of Eli Remolona as BSP Governor. Currently a member of the Monetary Board, he will assume the governorship on July 3. As we wrote in our latest Forecast report, Mr. Remolona is preeminently qualified for the job having spent 1...

Slide Presentation - Colombia: Muddy waters

COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Jun 2023 · 1 response

Get insight into Colombia's fiscal policy, economic activity and political environment with a presentation from Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar.

Confirmed: Wado de Pedro is the Kirchnerists' presidential candidate in the primaries

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Eduardo Enrique (aka Wado) de Pedro (WdP), current Minister of Interior and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner´s (CFK) political dauphin will run as a presidential candidate for the newly renamed “Unión por la Patria” (UP – formerly FdT). In August´s primaries, he will face the other main candidate o...

Deciphering Erdogan’s road map

TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Erdogan and his long-time companion Bahçeli came out of a very tough election marathon with smiles all around, but they didn’t make it clear what they planned to do during the next five years when they shall reign over Turkey uncontested. AKP's Manifesto for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic ...

Lira will meet with governors to discuss Tax Reform today, Zanin’s appointment to the STF was approved in the Senate, and the Senate approved the fiscal framework

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jun 2023

The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is meeting with governors today to discuss Tax Reform. After the meeting, the rapporteur's report is expected to be submitted. There are still many questions and resistance to the text. As expected, Cristiano Zanin was approved by the Senate and wi...

Kazakhstan offers to broker peace in Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2023

On June 20 President Tokayev said he would like to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and said Kazakhstan would like to help to achieve this. He underscored that Kazakhstan cherishes its relationship with Russia. Russia is an ally of Kazakhstan in the CSTO and a member of the same economic bloc, the Eura...

MNB's Virág is hinting on the future path of rate cuts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

At today's rate-setting meeting of the MNB, everything went as expected. The Council decided on a uniform 100 bps reduction of the O/N deposit rate, the repo rate and reverse FX swaps, leaving the base rate and the low end of the interest rate corridor unchanged. Mainly, the O/N depo rate (= the ...

Fernando Haddad increases in prestige and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Senate is expected to vote on the fiscal framework with edits. Senators are also analyzing Cristiano Zanin's appointment to the STF. The report on Tax Reform may be submitted. The TSE will adjudicate the case that could render former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for future elections. I...

The CAE will hold a public hearing on the fiscal framework, and the CAE may vote on the payroll tax exemption bill

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The Economic Affairs Committee (CAE) of the Senate will hold a public hearing today on the new fiscal framework. The Senate will likely conclude the vote on the text this week. Also today, the Economic Affairs Committee may vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions for 17 sectors of...

Neutral Interest Rate and Fiscal Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2023

When all the empirical evidence indicates that inflation expectations are anchored to the target, the Central Bank will begin a monetary easing cycle. Our objective in this report is not to examine when this cycle will start, but rather what the terminal interest rate will likely be. According to...

Slide presentation - Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

Get insight into the the macroeconomic and geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Caucasus and Central Asia region with the presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia: Boons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict".

Ramaphosa in Moscow

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2023

On June 17 the President of South Africa met Putin. President Ramaphosa was accompanied by the presidents of the Comoros Islands, Zambia and Senegal. Ramaphosa said that the war should end as soon as possible. Ramaphosa's 10-point peace proposal was said by Moscow to be difficult to implement. Ta...

African leaders visit Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jun 2023

On June 16 African leaders arrived as a part of a mission to negotiate peace. They are due to travel to Russia. The delegates are the presidents of South Africa, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros Islands. When they arrived in Kyiv a barrage of missiles hit the city. Ukraine condemned the missile at...