GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Fiscal data continues to support credibility in 2023, 2024 could be more problematic The fiscal deficit is gradually increasing as tax revenues decline, but the pace appears modest. The fiscal deficit reached 0.6% GDP in the last 12 months, up from 0.3% last month. Tax revenues are down 7.8% y/y ...

The current account surplus appears narrower than reported previously

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

The CBR published its updated estimates of selected items of the current account for 4M23 and the 5M23 data. It appears that reality now looks somewhat different relative to the previous perception. According to the CBR’s release a month ago, the current account surplus in April and 4M23 was $5.2...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jun 2023

Some acceleration of inflation during the last week to 0.21% w-o-w caused some nervousness among investors. Given the previous moderately hawkish rhetoric of the CBR, many didn’t rule out that the regulator could have raised the key rate today. We didn’t see the necessity to do that, as overall C...

Finland expels 9 Russian diplomats

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

On June 7 Finland said that the diplomats were working in an intelligence capacity. Finland said this was a breach of the Vienna Convention. The Finnish Intelligence Service assessed the diplomats to be undercover intelligence officers and said the expulsions would seriously impair Russian intell...

Russian political/pandemic update: crises as usual

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

It looks as though the mood of the Russian society was probably somehow shaken by drone attacks that occurred in several cities, including Moscow. Apart from that, May was a relatively quiet month for the majority of Russians (except for those living in the regions close to the Ukrainian borders)...

Lula is considering making changes to the ministerial team, the Working Group on Tax Reform approved the guidelines of the rapporteur’s report, and tomorrow, June 8, is a federal holiday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Jun 2023

Some changes in the ministerial team should soon take place. The goal is to improve the relationship with Congress. The ministries of Tourism and Communications will likely be changed. There are rumors in the market about Fernando Haddad replacing Rui Costa as Chief of Staff. Yesterday, the Worki...

The Federal budget in balance in April as spending moderated

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 5M23, the federal budget deficit was almost the same as in 4M23 (R3.4 trln), implying that in April, it was balanced (in fact, there was a tiny surplus). Spending moderated last month as the ministry spent slightly over R2.0 trln. Average monthly spending ...

Industrial output fell further markedly in April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Jun 2023

Industrial output shrank by 2.5% mom, 5.6% yoy in April, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis, following a 3.8% yoy decrease in Q1. This marks a downtrend that has been there since an all-time peak of output in September 2022. The level of output was 8.6% lower in April than at the September peak...

Lula signed the MP on the Desenrola debt renegotiation program, the rapporteur on the fiscal framework is negotiating changes to the text, and the report on Tax Reform is expected to propose a dual VAT

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

President Lula finally signed the Desenrola provisional measure (MP), and it was published in the Official Federal Gazette today. The program will begin in July and will include debts registered up to December 31 of last year. The rapporteur for the new fiscal framework in the Senate, Omar Aziz (...

Digesting Boric's marathon speech

CHILE · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

President Gabriel Boric delivered his second state of the union speech last week. These speeches tend to offer summaries of accomplishments and lists of promises for the future, often sprinkled with figures and statistics. There was some of that on 1 June – certainly a lot of promises. But it see...

Dam in Ukraine damaged possibly by Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

On June 6 Kakhovka Dam was partly blown up. Videos of the damage were shown by Ukrainian and Russian bloggers. The dam is in Russian-held territory and is vital for supplying much of Ukraine, including Crimea, with potable water. It is close to a nuclear power station that is now possibly threate...

A rather poor but unsurprising retail sales figure in April

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2023

Retail sales fell by 0.9% mom, 12.1% yoy on seasonally and day-adjusted basis in April. Previously, it decreased by 12.8% yoy in March and by 8.5% yoy in the whole of Q1. Overall, retail sales dropped by 10.4% yoy in the first four months of 2023. This sounds like a rather poor performance indeed...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jun 2023

The avalanche of failures in the domestic political sphere and in the country’s positions in diplomatic questions requires a rearrangement. The luck of expanding GDP will not last long, and the negative effects of the fiscal-monetary conflict will persist. UNEXPECTED DEFEATS IN THE COUNTRY AND...

Russia says it has beaten off a Ukrainian counterattack

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 the counterattack took place in the Donetsk Region of Ukraine. Russia annexed Donetsk in 2022. Russia said that there were attacks on five sectors of the front and claimed that mechanized and tank battalions had attacked. Russia published videos of Ukrainian vehicles being fired at. On ...

There will be a national holiday on Thursday (Corpus Christi), the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, and the STF will resume the trial on the time frame for indigenous lands

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2023

Due to the holiday on Thursday, Corpus Christi, this will be a shorter week of political activity. On Tuesday, June 6, the Working Group on Tax Reform in the House will publish the guidelines for the rapporteur, Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB). His report is expected to be presented around June ...