GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Consumer prices were unchanged over a month ago in May, thanks to pre-election free natural gas offer to households for a month, with the 12-month rate dropping to 39.6%, from 43.7% in April. Domestic producer prices rose modestly by 0.7% in the month, m/m, thanks, among others, to subdued energy...

The government of (incessant) change

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 05 Jun 2023 · 1 response

August 1994, right after Ernesto Samper’s inauguration as the new president of Colombia. His competitor, Andres Pastrana made public some tapes incriminating Samper’s campaign for allegedly having received $6 million from narcotraffickers to finance his campaign. 2023, 10 months after Petro’s ina...

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration

ISRAEL · Report · 05 Jun 2023

1. Wage growth remains sticky, accelerating at an annual rate of 5%. 2. Private consumption growth has decelerated in recent months. 3. The shekel continued to weaken due to uncertainty regarding both the political and geopolitical outlook.

Private consumption decelerates despite wage acceleration

ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Jun 2023

Wage growth accelerated in Q123 to an annual rate of 6.3% (trend data) from 3.5% in Q422. This wage growth was witnessed in several sectors, both in public sector (wage agreement in the educational sector) but in the private sector as well. Initial data for April point to wage growth of 5.1% y/y,...

Ukraine says it is ready for its counter offensive

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jun 2023

On June 3 the Ukrainian President made the statement. He said that it would not be quick and there could be significant casualties. He said Ukraine did not have all the arms it wanted but it cannot delay any further. He has asked for armored vehicles in particular. He also wants more Patriot miss...

GULF WEEKLY: SEZs exempt from Saudisation, Dubai’s Palm Jebel Ali is revived, Sultan Haitham visits Iran

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped mid-week but rose after the debt ceiling deal and ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. * Iraq announced plans for a major road and rail corridor from the Gulf to Turkey and Europe. * The Saudi census showed a count of ...

Government deposits in Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 02 Jun 2023 · 2 responses

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Executive Power, deposited in the National Congress a Fiscal Responsibility Bill. The bill seeks to guarantee the sustainability of public finances. The fiscal rule states that annual primary spending growth rate must not exceed the expected in...

Economics: Data published in May tended to show continuing growth but at a slower pace

MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

While GDP for the first quarter (3.7%) came in 2bp lower than the preliminary figure published almost a month earlier, consumption and gross fixed capital formation figures for the first months of the year came in higher than expected, prompting us to upwardly revise our growth projection for 202...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

Kazakhstan declines to join the Russia-Belarus Union

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2023

On May 26 President Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would not be changing its status. Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. The other members are Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Russia and Belarus. In 1999 Belarus and Russia formed the union state. They agreed to full reunification eventually....

Politics: De facto expropriation of section of rail line and the political decomposition it entails

MEXICO · Report · 30 May 2023

When Mexican Marines took control on May 19 of a 75-mile stretch of rail line operated by a subsidiary of Mexico’s second largest conglomerate, Grupo Mexico, the seizure was a form of expropriation as officials have never indicated when, if ever, they might return it. The takeover is part of Pres...

Russian macro: gradual de-Westernization is on the way

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2023

As the Western countries decided to cut trade with Russia and oust it from the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY segment of the global financial system, Russian businesses shrugged their shoulders in bewilderment and gradually started looking for alternatives. Despite the various inconveniences caused by the fact ...

Analysis of the fiscal framework in the Senate and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2023

The fiscal framework begins analysis in the Senate. Provisional measures that expire on June 1 may be put to a vote in the House and Senate, including the measure on the structure of the government. We expect the appointment of Cristiano Zanin to the Supreme Federal Court (STF). President Lula me...

Another encouraging growth figure

INDONESIA · Report · 30 May 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q1 2023 GDP growth at 5.03% Y/Y, slightly above the 5.01% annual growth rate of Q4 2022. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy contracted by 0.92%, which followed the normal pattern. The fastest sector of growth in Q1 2023 was transp...

Further tightening will be data dependent

ISRAEL · Report · 30 May 2023

1. Last week the shekel weakened sharply on concerns regarding geopolitical risks and the possible renewed unilateral judicial overhaul. 2. A weaker shekel will translate into higher inflation (we see a 15% pass-through). 3. Unless this trend is reversed, the likelihood of a rate hike in J...