GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On April 11 Russia's parliament voted to streamline the system of calling men up for the military. This bill adds to the rumors that Russia is planning a new wave of conscription. Russian males usually do a year of military training at the age of 18. Wartime conscription is mostly about calling b...

The submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed to April 17, deputies are upset that the government issued a decree on the sanitation framework bypassing Congressional input, and Campos Neto should go the CAE on April 25

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2023

Once again, the submission of the new fiscal framework was postponed. According to the president of the Joint Budget Committee (CMO), Senator Daniella Ribeiro (PSD-PB), the bill is now expected to be submitted next Monday, April 17, after the return of Finance Minister Haddad from his trip to Chi...

CPI-inflation for March out: further 'patience' from the MNB will be required

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2023

Well, the CPI-inflation data for March, reported this morning, was just awful. For sure, the headline rate fell a little further, to 25.2% yoy, from 25.4% yoy in February, making March the second consecutive month with a decrease, from the peak 25.7% yoy in January. It is also true that in its la...

Azerbaijan expels 4 Iranian diplomats amid assassination claims

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

On April 6 Azerbaijan made the move. It has accused the diplomats of spying and gave them 48 hours to leave. Azerbaijan arrested 6 of its own citizens that day and said that they had conspired to overthrow the government and establish a theocracy. Iran is a shariat state whereas Azerbaijan is sec...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...

Potential growth slows. International reserves are solid in the face of the recent external financial turmoil. The dispute between Legislative and Executive continues, raising questions about the discussion of the Minera contract.

PANAMA · Report · 04 Apr 2023

The IMF March report projects 5% GDP growth for 2023 and 4% growth thereafter. Potential growth decreases to 4% from 6%, a result of the fall in total factor productivity in recent years. The weakness of taxation performance calls for a profound reform of the system and a revision of the size and...

Politics: AMLO, 4T and the economy score high in poll, despite discontent over security

MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

President López Obrador’s approval rating jumped to its highest since late 2020, perceptions of whether the country is on the right track were at their strongest since 2019, and support for prolonging AMLO’s governing project into the next presidential administration approached 50%, as did suppor...

Economics: Another month of mixed economic indicators alongside easing inflation

MEXICO · Report · 04 Apr 2023

Economic activity data for January and February delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction as have consumer and business confidence indicators, readings that reflect the extent of continuing momentum in some areas of the economy. At the same time, the country is faced w...

The politics of debt after the NPC

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Apr 2023

China is struggling with high debt. The weakest portion is concentrated in the local investment companies, Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), with an estimated 50 to 60 trillion yuan. They emerged from the 2009 financial crisis and have since become the principal support for the propert...

Massa prepares new measures amidst conditions set by the IMF Executive Board during the fourth review approval

ARGENTINA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2023

During the weekend the IMF Executive Board approved the fourth revision of the EFF, allowing an immediate disbursement of SDR 4bn (approximately USD 5.4bn). According to the IMF press release, “All quantitative performance criteria through end-December 2022 were met with some margin, supported by...

The OPEC+ April surprise

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2023 · 1 response

* Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Oman are cutting production by -4.8% from May. * Four other OPEC+ members made similar commitments, and Russia extended its existing voluntary cut. * Overall, the actual cuts committed to are more than those announced in October. * Prices have rallied by about 6...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Below we examine the political contradictions of the government and some details and implications of the new fiscal framework. A feeling of perplexity has crystallized about the behavior of President Lula and the paralysis of his government during its first three months, the “honeymoon” period...

Base effects continue, so does stickiness

TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2023

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 2.3% in March (vs. 2.7-2.8% consensus), with the 12-month rate thus easing further to 50.5%, from 55.2% in February, and a peak of 85.5% in October last year. Domestic producer prices rose very modestly by 0.4%, m/m, in the month, which led to a furth...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake

VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

The government may submit the new fiscal framework to Congress this week, the conflict in Congress regarding the analysis of provisional measures continues, and Bolsonaro to testify to the Federal Police about the jewelry he brought into the country

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2023

The government may submit a supplementary bill dealing with the new fiscal framework to Congress. As a supplementary bill, it will need 257 votes in the House and 41 in the Senate to be approved. The conflict between the House and the Senate regarding the analysis of provisional measures (MPs) co...