GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy contracted during the final quarter of 2022 following a rallying of 1.8% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP recorded a growth rate of -1.3% q/q, la...

President Ramaphosa reshuffles his cabinet under duress

SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

Last night after much anticipation and months of delays, President Ramaphosa finally announced some fairly predictable changes to his Cabinet. His old ally and now X-Deputy President David Mabuza finally resigned as a Member of the Parliament after weeks of hoping that Ramaphosa would reshuffle b...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, albeit with no signs of acceleration

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, inflation m-o-m in February was 1.3%, i.e., much higher than in February 2022 (0.8% m-o-m). As a result, y-o-y inflation in February moved to 21.3% (from 20.7% a month ago), while the 6M moving average monthly inflation stayed at 1.4%, i.e., almost ...

Lula is likely to keep the Minister of Communications in office, the União Brasil and the PP are considering forming a party federation, and Bolsonaro continues to lose political capital

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2023

President Lula met with the Minister of Communications, Juscelino Filho (União), accused of using a Brazilian Air Force (FAB) plane to participate in an auction of racehorses in São Paulo and omitting information about his personal assets to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). Lula has decided to...

February inflation at 8.6%

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

The headline inflation rate slid from a 15-year high of 8.7% in January to 8.6% in February. It was below analysts’ expectations (8.9% median) and within the BSP’s forecast for the month (8.5% to 9.6%) but it basically reflected unchanged prices on the average, i.e., zero month-on-month inflation...

Federal budget deficit narrowed in February as spending moderated tax collection improved

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

Minfin reported that the federal budget deficit in February decreased to R821 bn (versus R1760 bn in January) as non-oil-and-gas tax collection improved and reached R1286 bn (versus 931 bn in January). The oil-and-gas tax flow was poor in both months as the price for Russian oil remained below $5...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Just In the few weeks since assuming office, the new government has been repeating the imprudent pattern of confronting the limits imposed on its power by the established rules, as is typical of autocracies of the right or left. Unlike Bolsonaro, who left decisions on economic questions largely i...

Politics: Significance and implications of the second mass civil society mobilization

MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A new potential force is entering the electoral panorama in Mexico and it might be a game changer. On Sunday, February 25 an estimated 1.2 million citizens took to the streets in 100 cities throughout the country in defense of the autonomy and ongoing autonomous functioning of the National Electo...

Economics: February economic data shows growth continues to slow as inflation remains high

MEXICO · Report · 06 Mar 2023

Economic indicators released last month showed continuing growth in key areas of industrial and service activity, as well as evidence that the slower pace that began to emerge over the course of the fourth quarter extended into 2023. They also showed that inflation remains sticky, especially in t...

No BoI FX intervention in February

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023

The Bank of Israel did not sell FX at all in February. The reserves did decline by 4.7ml USD due mostly to revaluation (global dollar appreciation). This underlines the BoI policy of avoiding FX intervention unless there is tremendous market dislocation in the short term. The weakening of the she...

Inflation risks shift from wages to FX volatility

ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Business sentiment remains strong The Business Tendency Survey in February reflects strong and steady growth with some improvement in the expectation components as well. The expectation for change in employment also improved in general, and in the hi-tech service sector (information and communica...

Turkey’s other quake

TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2023

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, b...

Moody's did not review Hungary's sovereign credit rating last week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Mar 2023

Moody's passed its first pre-announced review date of this year for Hungary's sovereign credit rating on Friday, March 3 without actually doing a review. As a matter of fact, this sounds like good news, as there seemed to be a realistic chance for a negative rating step, in the form of lowering t...

Is PM Orbán cautiously distancing himself from Moscow?

HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 1, the Russian government issued a decree to ban visa-free travel by Hungarian diplomats to Russian territory, "until Hungary does not stop breaching the provisions of the underlying bilateral agreement". It is not immediately clear in what way Hungary is breaching the agreement in quest...

Russia claims Ukraine is raiding across the border

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Mar 2023

On March 2 Russia's TASS news agency said that a small Ukrainian Army unit crossed the frontier and shot civilians. These fighters were mostly in civilian clothes. Russia has published photos and videos which purport to show Ukrainians holding flags near Bryansk. Some of these images have been ge...