GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

For health reasons, President Lula canceled his trip to China this week. The trip may take place in May. Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is due to return to Brazil on Thursday, March 30. Bolsonaro traveled to the United States on December 30 last year to avoid handing over the presidential s...

Macro thoughts: take two

TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Still no rate cut is likely at the March 28 Monetary Council meeting

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

Predicting the outcome of the March 28 rate-setting meeting, when the MNB's Q1 inflation report is also due to be discussed, appeared quite easy around the middle of this month. By that time, the forint had depreciated to around EURHUF 395, at which level any reduction of the sterilisation rate l...

Putin says he will place nuclear weapons on Belarus

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2023

On March 25 Putin made the announcement. He claimed that this was nothing out of the ordinary. He added that Russia would send depleted uranium ammunition to be used in Ukraine if Ukraine received depleted uranium. On March 24 the UK said it might provide depleted uranium shells to Ukraine becaus...

Guatemala confronts a less dynamic year.

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Mar 2023

Guatemala´s economy faced several challenges in 2022, such as high domestic inflation, less favorable external conditions and high interest rates. The economy nonetheless recorded strong growth, good external accounts and stability in fiscal figures and in the financial sector. Guatemala´s econom...

GULF WEEKLY: All except Kuwait hike rates, Saudi relations with Iran and Syria advance, Kuwait’s political crisis deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Mar 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks, except for Kuwait’s, mirrored the Fed’s +25bp hike, as usual. * S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A, and Moody’s added a positive outlook. * Saudi and Qatari investors were hit hard by Credi...

More drone strikes as Xi leaves Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Mar 2023

On March 22 the Chinese President flew home. There was a drone strike on the Russian naval base at Sevastopol that Russia claimed to have fended off. Russia said no damage was inflicted by the drones. The Russian Governor of Crimea said it is false to say, as some have, that people are leaving Cr...

A very soft landing, with plenty of turbulence

CHILE · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Chilean economic activity has been moving away from the protracted decline observed in the second half of 2022. The Monthly Economic Activity Index surprised positively in January. The breakdown by sectors showed widespread improvement. Nevertheless, services continued to lead the way. The real q...

Economics: Continuing export strength potentially threatened by the direction of US demand

MEXICO · Report · 21 Mar 2023

Economic activity data for January and February has delivered mixed results in the case of manufacturing and construction, as have consumer and business confidence indicators. US industrial production, with its decisive incidence on Mexican manufacturing, has been slowing over the past three mon...

Politics: The contradictions and problems of militarizing public security

MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2023

The twin issues of public security and its militarization, specifically the role of the Armed Forces and National Guard, are once again on the front burner in Mexico. The latest spark was a February 26 incident involving students traveling home after a night of partying in border city Nuevo Lared...

COPOM, FOMC and ECB: Central Banks Carrying Out Their Mandates

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2023

Robert Mundell, who won a Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999, expressed the “principle of effective market classification”, advocating the use of each economic policy instrument in pursuit of the objective with the greatest efficiency. The instrument that has a “comparative advantage” to stanch a ...

Inflation remains sticky and broad based

ISRAEL · Report · 20 Mar 2023

1. Inflation in February surprised on the upside and remains both sticky and broad-based. 2. Most macro factors support weaker inflationary pressure going forward, except for the likelihood of further shekel weakness. 3. At this stage, we expect a 0.5% rate hike on April 3, as the BoI is li...

Saudi Arabia’s ratings improve while Kuwait’s political crisis deepens

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2023

There were some significant and potentially market-moving developments in the Gulf over the weekend and so we are putting out a quick note, rather than waiting to roll up our analysis into our weekly briefing on Friday. * Saudi Arabia received a rating upgrade from S&P and a positive outlook f...

Russia evades sanctions by ordering from Kazakhstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

On March 17 Reuters reported that Russian companies are ordering Kazakh companies to buy forbidden items from the West on their behalf. These items are then sold to Russia. Russia is also doing this via Turkey and other former Soviet states. It seems that Turkey is now taking action to stop its c...

January BOP data slightly disappointing, no rate cut likely on March 28

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Mar 2023

Well, January BOP, published today, was not really splendid. If it had been only about the trade account, it would have been great, the annualised single-month deficit ratio falling to 1% of GDP from 2.8% in January 2022, the merchandise deficit doing reasonably well (stable in absolute terms, do...