GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Jan 6 The Civil Aviation Committee: Kazakhstan has extended the "open skies" regime for foreign airlines until 2028 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have agreed on the conditions for the construction of the Kambarata HPP-1 with a capacity of 1860 MW will generate 5 bln kW-H...

Russia increasing military manufacturing

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jan 2023

On January 26 the head of Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, said that it was speeding up the production of ammunition because of the Ukraine War. He denied that Russia was running short of munitions. He claimed that Rostec had multiplied production due to the Defense Min...

Georgia benefits from Russian immigration

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

In 2022 Georgia's banks received over USD 2 billion in transfers from Russia. Over 112,000 Russians moved to the country. Most were men aged 18-35. But some were older men, women and children. The influx of Russians has boosted the economy 10%. Some of the immigrants are anti-war liberals. But th...

The PL, PP, and Republicanos announced support for Rogério Marinho as Senate president, today is the first in-person meeting of the Governors Forum 2023, and the Petrobras Board will vote on Jean Paul Prates’s appointment as president of the company

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jan 2023

With the support of the three parties, Senator Rogério Marinho (PL) has guaranteed at least 23 votes. However, he still does not have enough votes to defeat Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG). Currently, Pacheco may have 40 to 48 votes – he needs over 41 votes to be re-elected in the first round. The Gover...

New US ambassador in Moscow

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 26 Jan 2023

On January 25 Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow. Her time as ambassador will not be easy as relations are their worst since the Cold War. She is the first woman to hold the post. Ms. Tracy was previously the deputy chief of mission in Moscow 2014-17. Ambassador Tracy will present her credentials soon...

Election milestones, ToS scenarios

TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan has more-or-less declared May 14 as the new date for elections and is expected to issue the executive decree abolishing the legislature during the second week of March. The first essay covers other important milestones on the way to elections, such the final dates to register as...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth. * The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia. * Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Duba...

The First Package: “Much Ado About Nothing”.

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Last week, measures were announced aiming to reduce the primary deficit in 2023 (summarized in Table 1). The largest part of the adjustment falls on the revenue side, based on revenues’ reestimation and increase, along with some temporary spending cuts. However, given the nature of Brazil’s fisca...

Signs of inflation moderation, except for rental prices

ISRAEL · Report · 17 Jan 2023

1. Inflation in December surprised slightly on the downside (up 0.3% m/m and 5.3% y/y), with core inflation softening to 5% from 5.3%. 2. Except for rental prices, which continue to accelerate, non-housing service prices and goods are decelerating. 3. Due to recent government measures to re...

Turbulent politics, fuzzy economics

TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2023 · 1 response

Turkey’s order for new F-16 jet fighters and upgrade kits are in jeopardy, as Senator Bob Menendez threatens to block them. Assad laid out two conditions for peace with Ankara, to which Erdogan shall not be able to oblige. This deprives him of a minor propaganda asset. Erdogan and Bahceli have...

The Minister of Finance announced economic and fiscal measures for the year, the PF found a draft decree in Anderson Torres’s home suggesting a planned coup d’etat, and the government is considering increasing the minimum wage above the rate of inflation

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2023

Minister Fernando Haddad disclosed what would be the main measures of the new government to avoid the R$ 231.5 billion shortfall foreseen in the approved budget for 2023. He expects the deficit to come in somewhere between R$ 90 billion and R$ $100 billion. A large part of the plan's measures wil...

Positive surprise on inflation in December, with a small footnote on methodology

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2023 · 1 response

December figures on CPI-inflation, reported this morning, look just beautiful. They are 1.9% mom, 24.5% yoy, the year-on-year number up from 22.5% in November. But the median analyst expectation in Portfolio.hu's survey was 25.8%, and MNB's Q4 inflation report expected 24.8-27.1%. The latter was ...

Contradictory Russian claims on the Battle of Soledar

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

On January 11 the head of the Russian Wagner mercenary group said that it had taken Soledar. Evgeny Prigozhin emphasized how tough the battle had been and also praised the Ukrainians for ''honorably and bravely defending the territory''. He also said the claim that Ukrainians are deserting is fal...

Friend to all enemy to none

PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Jan 2023

Ever since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office in July last year, his foreign affairs team has been busily working at re-centering Philippine foreign policy after the extreme pro-US then pro-China stances of the previous two administrations. In his words, President Marcos defined his foreign p...

Entering 2023, all buttons punched

TURKEY · Report · 08 Jan 2023 · 2 responses

President Erdogan kicked off the year with the mother of all pork-barreling drives to win elections. While his magnanimity is certain to stimulate the standings in the polls of him and his AKP-MHP alliance, the surge is very unlikely to last until the elections or alter the current equilibrium in...