GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 7 the Ukrainian President applauded Western countries for unprecedented arms shipments. The US is going to send Bradley armored fighting vehicles that destroy tanks as well as anti-aircraft missiles, drones, rockets, howitzers and high precision weapons. On January 6 the US announced t...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West conflict to deepen in 2023

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Jan 2023 · 1 response

As time goes by and the conflict in Ukraine produces increasingly higher casualties, politicians of all sorts care less and less about those who have become victims of political stubbornness. Indeed, if we assume that the amount of compassion and regret politicians offer to ordinary people is a c...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai lifts alcohol tax, FAB mooted buying StanChart, Oman’s detailed budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jan 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped below $80 this week on global recession fears. * The GCC had 5/10 most active SWFs in 2022, boosting investments in major deals by 88% y/y. * The UAE called a UN meeting over a controversial holy site visit by ...

Russia sends hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 4 it was announced on Russian TV that Russian frigates armed with Zircon missiles have been dispatched to the Atlantic. The frigate is the Admiral Gorshkov. Putin is presumably acting tough to deter the West from arming Ukraine and also to distract the Russian public from the recent se...

Record warm weather in Europe, gas reserves slightly up, gas price massively down

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

It seems that for now at least, Mother Nature is refusing to play to the hands of Vladimir Vladimirovich (Mr. Putin), whose not-so-secret objectives include making Europe truly feel the winter cold, as gas supplies are proving insufficient. In these days, most of Europe, including Hungary, is exp...

Russia struggling in Bakhmut as casualties mount

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2023

On January 3 Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Russian TV that fighting in Bakhmut is very difficult. Prigozhin is the head of Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner fights alongside the Russian Army. Prigozhin said that the Ukrainians had built excellent defenses. It is house by house fighting. He did ...

Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries down 45% in 2022

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2023 · 1 response

On January 3 Gazprom released the data. Gas exports outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was 101 billion cubic meters in 2022. It was 185 bcm in 2021. The CIS is an organization that is open to ex-USSR countries, and most of them have chosen to join. The EU was the principal Gazpr...

Inflation ends the year under 65%

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2023

Consumer prices rose by some 1.2% in December, with the 12-month CPI inflation ending the year at under 65% (64.3%), down from 84.4% in November, but markedly higher than 36.1% of end-2021. December CPI print compares rather favorably to the consensus (of around 2.6-2.8%) and our somewhat lower f...

Adios, interim presidency

VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

Russian bombardment of Ukraine continues

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

On New Year's Day Russian missile and drone attacks continued. Ukraine said 4 people were killed and many were wounded. Russia continued to concentrate on the electric grid. Iranian drones were used. Ukraine said it shot down 45 drones. It claims a 70% success rate in destroying drones. The tempe...

Budget decree issued: a deficit of transparency

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

Just as expected, the government issued its decree to amend the 2023 budget on December 29. However, the decree did not include the whole set of documents, which are usually delivered to parliament for the discussion of annual budgets. As they have said, the budget will be handed in for ex-post a...

A somewhat dovish 0.5% hike, but much concern regarding fiscal policy

ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

A somewhat dovish 0.5% hike, but much concern regarding fiscal policy The Bank of Israel pushed rates higher today by 0.5% to 3.75%, as widely expected. The monetary statement had a more dovish tone than in the past regarding inflation, which remains broad-based and impacted by domestic demand bu...

The 2021 GDP statistics revised up

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jan 2023

At the very end of 2022 Rosstat announced it had revised the country's national accounts for 2021. So far, only the annual figures have been re-appraised. As quarterly data remain unchanged, they do not match yet annual statistics (Rosstat plans to revise quarterly national accounts in April). Ac...

Putin's New Year's speech

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Dec 2022

On December 31 the president delivered his traditional New Year TV address. He spoke from a military base near Ukraine. He was visiting troops including foreign volunteers in the Russian Army. The president awarded medals. He said that 2022 was ''pivotal''. He said Russia was fighting for ''true ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi invests in Dubai and Oman, Q3 GDP stronger in Bahrain than Oman, Oman signs LNG deal with Japan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Dec 2022

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel’s hardline government could undermine warming relations with the Gulf. * Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus rose to 17% of GDP, while Qatar’s was around 29%. * PIF invested another $0.9bn in Lucid Group and com...