GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Turkey’s six-party opposition alliance, recently renamed as the Nation Alliance, issued its election manifesto and coalition protocol with great fanfare on 30 January, thus making asymptotic progress to the finish line, which would be crossed if it manages to unite around a single presidential ca...

OFZ: Minfin may soon resume the placement of floaters

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jan 2023

By the end of January, the Russian Ministry of Finance managed to raise about R200 bln on the OFZ market, which looks like a very modest result compared to 2022 (when the total amount of issuance reached R3.3 trln). So far, the government is sticking with cautious tactics, placing mostly fixed-ra...

The market is monitoring changes in the BNDES, Lula spoke about the Mercosur-EU trade agreement yesterday, and Senator Marinho is gaining support in the election for Senate president

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jan 2023

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, said that the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) will discuss internally the credit policy for re-industrialization. The market is keeping a close eye on the BNDES to see whether there will be changes in the Long Term Rate (TLP). Yesterday, aft...

What is the Best Fiscal Risk Premium Measure: Exchange Rate, Stock Market Index or Yield Curve?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jan 2023

The absence of a fiscal framework results in a risk premium that is manifested in the prices of assets, such as the exchange rate, stock prices and the position and slope of the yield curve. Although in evaluating the reactions to the information related to fiscal policy, we look at these three p...

Inflation is a challenge for the Lula government and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2023 · 1 response

The Legislative and Judicial branches resume activities. Elections in the House and Senate are at the center of the political world. Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who are running for re-election, are the favorites. In the economy, the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Commi...

A record rise in car exports

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Jan 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q3 2022 with GDP growth of 5.72%, significantly higher than 5.44% achieved in the previous quarter. One of the main contributors to this growth was the rise in exports. In 2022, Indonesian exports reached $292 billion, a record level. Ind...

Kazakhstan macro: financial sector to be increasingly important for growth, with an emphasis on inflation and rates

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 30 Jan 2023

In line with an estimate by the National Bank of Kazakhstan concerning the country’s GDP growth at 3.1%, the country’s Ministry of Economy mentioned a similar figure. The National Bureau of Economic Statistics reported that in 9M22, the country’s GDP increased by 3.0%. Therefore, based on this nu...

Russia advances in east Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2023

On January 30 a Moscow installed bureaucrat named Denis Pushilin in Donetsk said that Russia has taken land around Vuhledar. But he said that Ukrainian resistance is fierce in Vuhledar. The town is 93 km south of Bakhmut which Russia intent on taking. Russia appears to want to do a pincer movemen...

There will be elections in Congress for the presidencies of the House and Senate this week, Congress and the Judiciary will resume activities on Wednesday, February 1, and the Central Bank will decide on the interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jan 2023

In the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) is running for re-election as president and, so far, there is no other viable candidacy. The race for the presidency in the Senate will be tougher than in the House. Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), who is seeking re-election, will face Rogério Marinho (PL-RN). Pacheco ...

Back on track in 2023

CHINA · Report · 30 Jan 2023

GDP grew 3% in 2022. Specifically, China’s economy rose by 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022, down from the 3.9% growth reported in Q3. Many negative factors affected the economy in 2022, including global macroeconomic tightening, the Ukraine crisis, real estate restructuring, the pandemic management policies ...

Concern regarding the judicial reform rattles the markets

ISRAEL · Report · 30 Jan 2023

1. Growing concern regarding the proposed judicial reforms has supported a selloff of Israeli financial assets, including equities, bonds and FX. 2. Recent economic indicators point to slowing growth, including weaker private consumption. 3. Despite slowing growth, a weaker shekel will ...

Concern regarding the judicial reform rattle the markets

ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Jan 2023

Financial markets in Israel have sold off recently Concern regarding capital outflows have resulted in a weaker shekel, lower equity prices and higher bond yields. This follows growing international (as well as domestic) concern regarding the proposed judicial reform which would strengthen politi...

S&P downgraded Hungary to BBB-, with Stable outlook, on Friday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2023

S&P had been holding Hungary on BBB/Negative since August 2022. The explanation of its downgrade, announced on January 27, included: (1) sharp monetary tightening, forced by sustained high inflation, forint volatility and external pressure; (2) high energy prices, uncertain economic prospects and...

Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?

VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...

Lula will meet with governors today, Congress and the Judiciary resume activities next week, and the Central Bank will meet to decide on the interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

In the meeting with Lula, governors should discuss federal compensation for revenue losses caused by the change in the ICMS collection rules – especially on fuel – and the borrowing capacity of the states. Congress and the Judiciary will resume their activities next week. Also next week, the Cent...