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China has announced a substantial levy on oil-related items that include Venezuela’s main oil export, the Merey 16 blend. Pdvsa sends just over 400,000 barrels per day of Merey 16 to China—60 percent of its total exports. If implemented as written, China’s planned tax would grind those exports to...

Administrative Reform proposal approved in the CCJ, mayors and governors should testify in the CPI next week and STJ adjudicates Eletrobras’s appeal

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2021

A Special Committee to analyze the Administrative Reform proposal will be created by the President of the House. The CPI should schedule mayors and governors to testify in the Committee next week. Eletrobras’s R$ 11 billion case should be voted on in the STJ; two ministers have yet to cast their ...

Can China fund its semiconductor ambitions?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 26 May 2021

China has made investment in technology a key policy for the coming decade, with semiconductors as the centerpiece. However, there are questions about China’s ability to “decouple” from the global semiconductor chain by building its owns state giants. One major question concerns funding. The pol...

Russia fines Google

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 26 May 2021

On May 24 a court issued a fine to the internet giant for not taking down forbidden material. Google had been given a 24 warning to comply. As the company did not abide by the court ruling by the deadline the fine was imposed. About 5 000 links were supposed to be deleted.As a penalty Google traf...

Russia’s industrial growth gathers pace in April

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

Rosstat reported that industrial output rose y-o-y by 7.2% in April and by 1.1% in 4M21. Mining was still down by 1.8% and 5.7% y-o-y in April and 4M21. Similar numbers for manufacturing looked more impressive – 14.2% and 4.5%. In May and June, y-o-y growth will become double-digit in the mining ...

Start of tightening course confirmed at today's Monetary Council

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 May 2021

Interest rates were not touched at the Monetary Council's monthly rate-setting meeting today, May 25. However, the statement confirmed most of what vice governor Virág said about a week ago, though expressed this time in the more indirect and enigmatic language typically used by high-level decisi...

General Eduardo Pazuello attended a political event, CPI hears Mayra Pinheiro and Tax Reform sees some progress

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2021

Active members of the military are not allowed to participate in political events. Pazuello should be summoned to testify in the COVID CPI once again. The presidents of the House and the Senate meet to discuss Tax Reform, and congressional leaders meet to discuss presidential vetoes and the Feder...

Rusal divesting itself of polluting assets

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

The aluminium company is starting a major restructure. The aim is to make the most of the green energy revolution. Rusal wants to ingratiate itself with environmentally friendly investors.On May 20 Rusal said it will break itself into two companies. One will produce green aluminium and the other ...

Arctic oil spill could cost Lukoil USD 13 million

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 Izvestia reported that the oil spill in the Russian Arctic is going to lead to fines for Lukoil of at least USD 8 million. However, if much of the oil in the Kolva River causes serious damage the fine will be closer to USD 13 million.On May 14 the oil spill at the Oshkoye field in the K...

EU bans Belarussian airlines from EU skies

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 25 May 2021

On May 25 the EU announced its response to Belarus forcing down an EU airliner on May 24. A Ryanair flight was forced to land in Minsk so that Belarussian dissident journalist Roman Prostevich would be arrested.No Belarussian airliners will be permitted in EU airspace. Belavia is the country's ma...

Turkey Covid Watch - May 24, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2021

The improvement on the covid cases front lost momentum this week, but there is hope on the vaccination front, with a large supply of Pfizer expected by end-May or early June. Overnight and weekend curfew and other restrictions remain in place till June 1, and whether they may be extended beyond t...

No agreement on Tax Reform, CPI hears Mayra Pinheiro and privatization of Eletrobras analyzed in the Senate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 May 2021

The report on Administrative Reform should be voted on this week. An agreement on the form and scope of Tax Reform has not yet been reached. The COVID CPI in the Senate only has one testimony scheduled this week, but should meet on Wednesday to schedule a possible second testimony on Thursday.

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics

ISRAEL · Report · 24 May 2021

Following the cessation of hostilities, the economy is expected to expand rapidly, but internal political uncertainty remains. A closer look at Q121 GDP numbers reveals strong export growth, as well as investments in equipment and private consumption (excluding new vehicles). Recent indicators po...

Belarus forces airliner to land

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 24 May 2021

On May 23 Belarus obliged a Ryanair air flight in Belarussian airpsace to land at Minsk. The flight was due to land in Lithuania. Belarus claimed there was a bomb on the plane to make the pilot land. There are allegations that Belarussian intelligence officers on the plane even started a fight as...

With a ceasefire in place, markets will focus on internal politics

ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 May 2021

Geopolitics: Following 11 days of confrontation, a ceasefire was declared Friday morning which appears to be holding.The actual cost of this operation is not expected to be significant, but it will strengthen the position of the Ministry of Defense and its demand for a significant increase in the...