GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In a stunning development in the last hour, it was announced that the arrest had been ordered of Ali Shareef al-Emadi, Qatar's finance minister, by the Attorney General (QNA). It is not clear if he is in custody or the specifics of the charges being brought against him, described as involving "da...

Winter is coming - a quantitative review of COVID

ARGENTINA · Report · 05 May 2021

Over the last year, we have been analyzing the economic and political impact of the pandemic, anticipating the scope of this global shock on the local economy. In this report, amid a severe second wave, with an erratic vaccination program being implemented, we add a complementary question: How mu...

Tax uncertainties add up to more than R$ 1 trillion and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 May 2021

Expectations are high regarding the testimony of the former Ministers of Health and the current Minister of Health, Marcelo Queiroga, in the Pandemic CPI in the Senate. The president of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), has promised to release the final report on Tax Reform today, May 3. Cong...

South Africa’s economy – a year into the Covid-19 pandemic

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 03 May 2021

South Africa’s growth: In line with what transpired globally as the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in both a worldwide health crisis and widespread economic crisis, the South African economy experienced a deep contraction of 7% in real GDP in 2020. Yet, a number of tail winds, including fewer restric...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s negative on Bahrain, S&P affirms Sharjah, QP might issue $10bn

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Moody’s put Bahrain on negative outlook and sees debt rising to 140% of GDP by 2023. * S&P affirmed Sharjah but sharply cut its fiscal outlook, with debt up to 63% of GDP by 2024. * Its update on RAK was more positive, wi...

Huarong and state defaults

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Apr 2021

The Huarong near default was important because a) it is the largest of the country’s Asset Management debt workout firms; b) it is 61 percent owned by the Ministry of Finance, making it directly owned by the central government; and c) it is has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, both dome...

Covid-19 eases its grip and the growth outlook improves

PANAMA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

So far this year the IMAE is showing a decrease of 9.73% for February and 12.2% during the first two months of the year. We must take this information cum granus salis because, during the first quarter of 2021, most commercial activities were shut down because of the pandemic. In contrast, in 202...

Mobility restrictions for the holiday

INDONESIA · Report · 30 Apr 2021

Indonesia is in the midst of the fasting month, the Ramadan. In the second week of May 2021, the holidays will start and they are usually full of celebrations, among families and in communities. Prior to the holidays, millions of people will go back to their hometowns and villages to see their pa...

SAUDI ARABIA: Highlights from MBS’s remarkable interview

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2021 · 1 response

In a 90-min interview marking the 5th anniversary of his Vision 2030 strategy, MBS made major announcements on taxes (VAT will be reduced, there will be no income tax) and financing (Aramco may raise about $19bn selling equity to a "global energy company" and the 2030 target for PIF's assets has ...

Imports rally

CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2021

GDP was up 18.3% y/y in Q1, and up 10.3% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of around 5%. In this report, we mostly use Q1 2019 as the benchmark period, because the major shock from the pandemic in February 2020 makes Q1 2020 data hardly comparable. The adjusted growth rate was lower th...

Closed for Business through 16 May

TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Hours after we sent our weekly Covid-19 Update to editors,President Erdogan declared a national lockdown from 7 pm Thursday (29 April) though 5 am Monday, 17 May.His goal is to reduce daily cases from 38K to 5K and rescue the critical tourism season.While the lockdown is almost certain to drastic...

New Positive Steps Forward

ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The bill in favor of dollarization was finally approved in first and second debates in the Assembly. Legislators from CREO, Social Christian Party, Alianza Pais and other from independent political blocks were in favor, and --as expected --correistas voted against. With this achievement, we expec...

The Rupture of the Spending Cap

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The reflections of the second wave of the pandemic on the “underprivileged” population had already led to the approval of a new round of the Emergency Relief program, to the tune of R$ 44 billion, which will not be computed for the effect of the spending cap, and in the budget enacted into law on...

Covid reopening may prove too much too early

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2021

From Saturday, April 24, the open-air terraces of bars and restaurants were allowed to open. According to the official explanation, the factor prompting this step was that the number of domestic citizens with at least one shot of Covid vaccine had exceeded 3.5 million or 36% of the whole populati...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 26, 2021

TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2021

Confirmed cases seem to have reached a peak and began declining this week, as we had surmised last week, though they are still very elevated. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise, but should also reach a peak soon given the usual lags between diagnosis and hospitalization. Vaccinations se...