GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

On January 17 Alexei Navalny flew back to Russia after months recovering in Germany. As the government warned him he would be, he was arrested within minutes of landing. The reason for his arrest was for parole violations. He has been in and out of jail several times already. Hundreds of well-wis...

The hyperinflation menace remains near

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Our central inflation forecast scenario has inflation slowing down a bit in 2021, to 2,200 percent this year from 2,500 percent last year. Black market dollars appreciate against the bolivar by 1,700 percent and sell for 20 million bolivars by year end but lose bolivar purchasing power for the fo...

Retail sales and China’s “Super Cities”

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Retail sales have declined due to Covid. However, we expect a strong pick-up in sales as the impact of Covid weakens because of several factors. First, the growth in household bank deposits has remained strong; and second, the majority of national retail sales occur in a small subset of the count...

Deflation of 0.7% in 2020

ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Jan 2021

December’s CPI surprised on the downside, declining 0.1% m/m (-0.7% y/y compared to -0.6% in November). Core inflation (the CPI excluding energy items and fresh produce) reached -0.4% y/y in December, following -0.2% in November. The main inflation surprise came from the housing rental item (17.2...

The BoI commits to purchasing 30bn USD this year

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Bank of Israel announced today that it will purchases 30bn USD in order to stem the forces supporting shekel appreciation. The shekel has appreciated rapidly since November, a trend which accelerated into January. 30bn USD is a significant amount (21bn were purchased in 2020) and could defini...

The authorities return natural gas price regulation amid public protests

UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Jan 2021

The Cabinet returned price regulation for natural gas on January 13th. The decision was delivered on the heels of mass protests against tariffs’ increase. From January 2021 many gas distributing companies have increased natural gas prices for customers, substantially on the back of growing prices...

The Worsening Pandemic and Uncertainty over the Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2021

We start by urging those who typically attribute “subjective probabilities” to the occurrence of events to read the book Radical Uncertainty, written by Mervin King (former governor of the Bank of England) and John Kay. They recommend that when faced with a situation of radical uncertainty – as i...

International Reserves Replacement and Expansion Program

CHILE · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021

In an unexpected decision, the Central Bank of Chile announced today the purchase of US$ 12 billion in the spot market with the goal of increasing international reserves to 18% of GDP (the highest figure since 2003). The Central Bank plans to buy US$ 40 million per day over a period of 15 months....

Minfin is back as an FX buyer

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 13 Jan 2021 · 1 response

Today, the Finance Ministry announced that it resumes purchasing of the hard currency on the open market according to the “fiscal rule”. From Jan 15 till Feb 4 it will spend R7.1 bln daily for this purpose. To remind, the rule was working in the opposite direction for the last 8 months, since Apr...

Russia's gold reserves worth more than its USD holdings

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2021

On January 11 the Russian Central Bank (CBR) published statistics showing how its gold reserves have appreciated in value. The report details the situation 6 months ago.In June 2020 Russia had USD 128.5 billion in gold. That was 23% of the country's international reserves. These gold reserves wer...

A perplexing number on the December cash budget deficit

HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jan 2021

No doubt, the Finance Ministry cares to keep analysts busy, which is no reason for a complaint, of course.The monthly cash deficit of the central government for December has just been reported at HUF2251bn, an annualized 57.8% of GDP. No mistake, the figure is correct, and it is definitely an unp...

The macro economy in 2021

INDIA · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The 2021 budget announcement will come on February 1. In this note, we review the overall macroeconomic situation. While vaccines will help reduce fear, India is at the late stage of the epidemic through the onset of herd immunity. Household consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels. I...

The BoI expects growth of 6.3% this year, assuming rapid vaccination

ISRAEL · Report · 11 Jan 2021

The BoI central forecast sees a rapid recovery following inoculation, with growth reaching 6.3% this year and 5.8% in 2022. Under this scenario, the Governor expects a reassessment of QE in the summer months. The fiscal deficit reached 11.5% in 2020, below initial expectations, on the back of str...

Economics: Banxico Law reform initiative poses major risk

MEXICO · Report · 11 Jan 2021

When the governing Morena party’s Senate leader proposed, and in short order passed in December reforms to the law governing Banco de México the reaction was swift. Private sector analysts, deputy governors at the central bank, the Mexican Bankers Association (ABM), international ratings agencies...

Kyrgyzstan elects president

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

On January 10 it was announced that Sadyr Japarov has been returned to office. He secured almost 80% of the vote. His nearest competitor polled a measly 7%. On the same day the country held a referendum on expanding presidential prerogatives. The expansion of presidential power won by 89% of the ...