GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

HighlightsThe fiscal deficit reached 11.5% GDP in 2020, below expectations.A few months ago, the expectations were for 13%-14% GDP.We have been consistently more optimistic, stressing two drivers: the high-tech service sector and the upside from lack of travel abroad on private consumption. Tax r...

German state trying to circumvent Nord Stream 2 sanctions

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Jan 2021

On January 6 a German state vowed to expedite Nord Stream 2 by using a climate foundation. Mecklenburg West Pomerania will shield companies building the pipeline. The pipeline will come ashore in that state.A foundation to fund ecological projects will be used. The pipeline will be defined as tec...

Russian e-visa scheme temporarily ended

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Jan 2021

On January 8 Moscow announced that its electronic visas will no longer operate until the pandemic is over. 52 countries can take advantage of these e visas. These nations include the EU, China and India. There are fears that North Korea could use them to send laborers to Russia.Most international...

Azerbaijan building airport in recovered territory

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 5 it was announced that a new airport will be built in Fuzuli. This district was only retaken from Armenia 2 months ago. There remains much demining to be done. The government is keen to keep reminding people of the victory of 2020.The liberated City of Susa is to be the cultural capit...

Serbia starts using Russian vaccine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 6 Serbia commenced vaccinating people with Sputnik V. Politicians are the first to receive it even if they are not high risk. The purpose of this is to reassure the public that the vaccine is safe. Belarus is the only other country in Europe using Sputnik. The WHO and the European Medi...

US accuses Russia of data breach

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Jan 2021

On January 6 Washington said that Moscow perpetrated the SolarWinds attack. The breach affected government and private sector security. Trump said it was China. However, other cabinet members blame Russia.The FBI, DNI, NSA and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency all blamed Russia. It...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar reconciliation, Saudi oil cut, Kuwaiti cabinet may resign, Omani budget

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jan 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * OPEC agreed to hold production largely flat for two months, then Saudi voluntarily cut by 1m b/d. * The cut pushed oil to a post-Covid high. Unrelatedly, the Asian LNG spo...

While we were gone

TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2021 · 2 responses

In our first politics commentary of the year, we refrain from making bold predictions, limiting ourselves largely to identifying salient developments and emerging trends since our last report(s). The natural gas pipeline TANAP delivering gas to Europe and a free trade deal with the U.K. headli...

Russian pipeline opens in Serbia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2021 · 1 response

On January 1 the President of Serbia opened the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in his country. A 403 km section of the pipeline passes through Serbia. Russian has and construction companies have been instrumental in the pipeline's completion. Balkan Stream is part of Turkstream. Balkan Stream provide...

Bad economic and epidemiological news at the end of the year: the slippery road ahead

PANAMA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Panama is the worst performing economy in Latin America, except perhaps for Venezuela. The first semester drop in GDP (-18.9%) was larger than the second worst, Peru (-17.3%), and twice the regional average of -8.4%. The third quarter followed the same pattern: -23.6% reduction in activity, where...

Exports are surging

CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2020

Growth continues to be strong. Industrial output rose 7% y/y in November, reaching its fastest growth rate since April. Investment rose 2.6% y/y, and was up 0.8 pps from October. Consumption was the worst-hit macro variable of the pandemic. But retail sales of social consumption goods recovered ...

The president’s lack of leadership, and the VP’s authoritarian and leftist stance, feeds economic pessimism

ARGENTINA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Key health and economic indicators published after we posted our last Quarterly forecast show some improvement. The number of COVID-19 infections fell in November, and the first two weeks of December. GDP and employment preliminary estimates by INDEC for Q3 show a stronger-than-expected recovery....

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021

VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Introspection at the end of 2020

COLOMBIA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Balance of payments data show that the current account deficit continued to shrink, from a 3.6% of GDP deficit at the start of 2020, to 3% in Q2, then 2.7% in Q3. While this reduces the economy’s exposure to financing gaps, the reduction deserves a closer look. The improvement in remittances and ...

Economics: Risk sources expand as the year ends

MEXICO · Report · 21 Dec 2020 · 1 response

In this, our last issue for a year in which Mexico’s economy will experience its greatest contraction in 90 years, we take a quick look at the direction of the most recent economic indicators, assess sources of heightened risk moving forward, and offer our outlook for the coming year. There have...