GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A fiscal crisis and desperate efforts by Ukraine’s leadership to eke out at least a tiny positive signal from the IMF have been the main topics of focus in recent weeks. Despite an improvement in budget collections, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko admitted that public coffers were missing at le...

The politicization of the vaccine and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Dec 2020

Despite the fact that the Congressional recess begins on December 23, this will be the final week of legislative activity this year. On Monday, the House may vote on the bill that deals with state debt and the new currency exchange law, among other proposals. Parliamentarians will also vote on th...

Russian and British coronavirus vaccines may combine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

On December 11 it was announced that the maker of Sputnik V will join forces with AstraZeneca to try to make a join coronavirus vaccine. The British coronavirus vaccine is made at Oxford. The Gamaleya Research Center developed Sputnik V. The state run laboratory's vaccine has met with widespread ...

3Q20 y-o-y GDP upgraded

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2020

Rosstat upgraded its estimate of the 3Q20 y-o-y GDP growth, which of course remained negative, but less so (-3.4% versus -3.6% released earlier as a flash estimate). This upgrade was generally in line with GKEM Analytica’s thinking and previous upward revisions Rosstat. As a result, the 9M20 GDP ...

EU to give Ukraine EUR 600 million

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

On December 9 Brussels announced that it is granting more macro-financial assistance to Ukraine. This is in view of coronavirus and its economic repercussions. The Vice President of the European Commission said more aid will probably be forthcoming. The money needs to be spent on raising living s...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE F-35s pass Senate, Morocco normalises, Qatar budgets conservatively

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The Gulf Summit may happen in Riyadh rather than Bahrain to facilitate a Qatar deal. ● The JCPOA was a central focus at the Manama Dialogue and Europe could play a key roll ...

Trade boosts current account balance in the third quarter of 2020

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

South Africa’s (SA) current account recorded a surplus of R297.5bn or 5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months ending September 2020. In Q2-2020, the figure was a deficit of R123.7bn or -2.9% (revised from -R104.bn or -2.4%) of GDP. This implies that for the first 9 months of 2020...

Evergrande and China’s Property Bubble

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Rising debt at one of China’s largest developers, Evergrande, has led to concerns that China’s property market may be on the verge of collapse. Evergrande has approximately US$120 billion in debt and may have trouble raising financing. The issue, though, is not just the cash position of Evergrand...

Public spending and prices spiked in November

VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

After a surprising slowdown in October, inflation returned with a vengeance in November. Consumer prices rose by 62 percent month-on-month, compared with 21 percent in October. The spike was driven by public spending, which tripled in November compared with October. We expect that momentum from ...

Latam Outlook 2021 – Post-pandemic prospects – Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Dec 2020

Our live webinar features Affonso Pastore, Igal Magendzo, Juan Carlos Echeverry and Mauricio Gonzalez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Drausio Giacomelli, Research Head, Emerging Markets, Deutsche Bank.

EU-US sanctions: This is not a “one and done” shock!

TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

EU leaders will impose ultra-light sanction on Turkish entities for East Med gas drilling and uncooperative behavior in the Cyprus conflict. Numerous news agencies report that as a final favor to his pal Erdogan, Mr. Trump will unilaterally announce sanctions against Turkish bureaucrats for the p...

Prime rate unchanged at 6% amid inflation speed-up

UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

As expected, consumer inflation accelerated to 1.3% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in November from +1.0% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in the prior month. The tendency was named as the main reason for the NBU Board to leave prime rate unchanged at 6%. The NBU hopes for resumption of the IMF cooperation and keeps reservation...

EU prolongs sanctions on Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Dec 2020

On December 10 the EU announced that sanctions against Russia shall continue until June 2021 at least. The sanctions are to penalise Russia for the Ukraine Conflict. The sanctions are against sectors such as the oil industry.The Minsk Accords signed in 2015 were supposed to end the conflict. The ...

President Luis Abinader announces the development of the Comprehensive Institutional Reform Plan.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 10 Dec 2020

The Plan, launched within the context of the celebration of the International Day against Corruption, includes the following actions: 1. Creation of a single portal for transparency of government activity with unlimited access. 2. Regulation of the Public Administration’s advertising. 3. Review a...

White smoke has risen in Brussels

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Dec 2020

The ongoing EU Council meeting has completed the discussion of the conditionality mechanism today. The agreement between the German Presidency and Hungary / Poland has been approved, and so Hungary and Poland have given up their veto on the EU fiscal package. In addition to what we have said on t...