GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

The Signs of Economic Activity and Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Feb 2024

For inflation to converge to the target, it is necessary for economic activity to decelerate sufficiently for inflation expectations to equal the target. Although after the strong result observed in November (mainly due to Black Friday promotions), real retail sales cooled, our models indicate th...

Economics: Recent economic data anticipate early 2024 slowdown

MEXICO · Report · 13 Feb 2024

Preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures and recently released November and December economic activity indicators point to a slowdown in the early months of 2024 in the face of the contraction trend in manufacturing and the high comparison posed by a rally in construction activity that we estimate ...

The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...

Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets and reduces the probability of a rate cut in two weeks

ISRAEL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

1. Moody’s decision to place Israel on “negative outlook” (A2) resulted in higher bond yields and a weaker shekel. 2. January’s tax revenues surprised on the upside, resulting in a fiscal surplus. 3. Business sentiment continued to improve gradually in January as the economy recovers.

Disunity in the UniTeam

PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Feb 2024

The Marcos Jr.-Sara Duterte alliance seemed fragile from the very beginning, but the fragility of the alliance is now made more apparent in at least two major developments recently. The first is the ICC (International Criminal Court) investigation of ex-President Rodrigo Duterte. In this, both M...

Chinese bank stops settlements with Russia

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024

On February 7 the news about Chouzhou Commercial Bank (CCB) was reported in the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti. CCB has been vital for Russia to pay for imports since 2022. CCB has reportedly informed clients that it will no longer facilitate payments. The CCB payments ended on SWIFT and Ch...

Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024

The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...

Israel’s rating downgrade with negative outlook surprises markets

ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024

Moody’s decision surprises markets The downgrade from A1 to A2 was largely expected by markets towards the end of last week. But the combination of a downgrade with a negative outlook was not expected (by the MoF as well). According to Moody’s, the negative outlook was due to the risk of escalati...

Not much new here

TURKEY · Report · 11 Feb 2024

With President Erdogan leading the way, parties are sending their heavyweights on whistlestop tours to gain the hearts of voters. Only AKP, in tandem with symbiotic MHP, and CHP have any chance in major municipalities, with available polls in Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul granting CHP incumbents sma...

President of the Republic resigned yesterday, with no immediate consequences for investors

HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2024

President Katalin Novák announced her resignation yesterday. In addition, Judit Varga, former minister of justice and currently the leader of Fidesz' list for the upcoming European Parliament election resigned from all her positions, including a seat in Parliament, announcing her withdrawal from ...

US journalist interviews Putin

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2024

On January 8 Tucker Carlson interviewed the Russian president. Carlson is a right wing TV presenter who worked for Fox News until 2023. Putin spoke for 30 minutes about his belief that Ukraine is not a real country. There was no doubt about Putin's sincerity when he traced Russia's history from i...

Active legislative week with positive results

ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...

Inflation surprised on the downside again

HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

The headline CPI-inflation rate for January was reported at 0.7% mom, 3.8% yoy this morning, defeating analysts' median expectation of 4.2% yoy (even more our forecast of 4.5% yoy), and representing a sharp drop from 5.5% yoy in December. This means that inflation is now within the MNB's 2-4% med...

The Federal Police has seized Bolsonaro’s passport, next week will be the Carnival holiday, and Lula visited Minas Gerais alongside Rodrigo Pacheco

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Feb 2024

Yesterday's Federal Police investigation into an attempted coup d'état had broad political repercussions. President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies were targeted in the investigation. Bolsonaro's passport was seized. Due to the Carnival holiday next week, decisions on the payroll tax exemption, the...