GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2023, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for GDP covering about 60% of activity in the main segments of the economy) grew by 5.1%, implying that the country’s GDP could have expanded by over 5%. In 9M23, GDP grew by 4.9% y-o-y. The industr...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

The ruble strengthened in the first weeks of 2024 to R/$87-88 from R/$90-91 at the end of 2023. Since January 15, the CBR has increased FX sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) from the expected R12.6 bn to R16.7 bn daily. The CBR had to adjust its plans amid a lack of federal budget revenues...

Federal budget execution numbers confirm the economy is adaptable enough

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Jan 2024

A few days ago, the Ministry announced preliminary federal budget execution numbers, suggesting that the macroeconomic policy helped the economy weather several storms caused by external pressure. Soon after the relations between Russia and the West appeared broken about two years ago, we mention...

Slide Presentation: Colombia in 2024 - Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics

COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Gain insight into Colombia's 2024 macro and political outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics".

Lira should meet with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax issue, the Ministry of Finance is considering ending the tax exemption on imports of up to US$ 50, and Lula plans to travel around the country this year

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Today, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is expected to come to Brasília to meet with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), to discuss the payroll tax exemption. The Ministry is considering ending the import tax exemption on imported products of up to US$ 50, but this meas...

Haddad met with Padilha to discuss the payroll tax issue, Tarcísio publicly supported the re-election campaign of the current mayor of São Paulo, and the PT approved the affiliation of Marta Suplicy with the party to run for vice mayor of São Paulo

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Yesterday, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), met with the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), to discuss the payroll tax issue. He did not say what the government's decision would be but said he would speak with President Lula to negotiate a solution. In the ...

Markets will be following fiscal adjustments closely

ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jan 2024

The fiscal deficit reached 4.2% GDP in 2023. Expenditures increased by 14.2% (mostly in Q4 due to the war) and revenues declined by 6.4%. The deficit is expected to reach 5.7% in 2024 and possibly higher. Fiscal financing will be diverse, both abroad and domestic, but will require large gross dom...

State of war

ECUADOR · Report · 12 Jan 2024

President Noboa sent last night the third urgent economic bill, which has one purpose only: to raise the VAT from 12% to 15%. The rationale for the decision is the need to raise financing for expenditures associated with security and for the state of war dictated last Monday in response to nation...

Mixed feelings about the December CPI-inflation data

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

The headline rate of CPI-inflation for December was reported at -0.3% mom, 5.5% yoy this morning. Core inflation was much stronger, at 0.2% mom and 7.6% yoy. Non-fuel inflation, which we also think is an important indicator, was 0.1% mom, 6.4% yoy. The yoy headline rate dropped sharply, from 7.9%...

UK Prime Minister in Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jan 2024

On January 12 Sunak made the unannounced visit. Like most leaders, he crossed the border from Poland and travelled by train. Sunak announced an aid package of USD 3.2 billion for 2024. This is USD 250 million more than 2023. Bear in mind that with inflation this is a small increase on 2023. Briti...

Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents

MEXICO · Report · 08 Jan 2024

As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to ...

Philippines inflation: establishing a downtrend?

PHILIPPINES · Report · 08 Jan 2024

The January 5 release of the December 2023 inflation rate report in the Philippines indicates another possible downtrend of the country’s price movements. The first episode occurred last year, when inflation fell from a peak of 8.7% in January 2023 and dropped consistently in the following months...

Could inflation surprise on the upside in 2024?

ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jan 2024

1. Policy rates were cut to 4.5% due to moderating inflation and a strong shekel; fiscal concerns were secondary. 2. We revised our inflation forecast up to 2.8% in 2024. 3. Higher shipping costs, pent-up demand, and a rebound in housing rentals are likely to push inflation higher.

Japan offers to fund Ukraine air defense

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2024

On January 7 the Japanese Foreign Minister made a surprise visit to Kyiv. She said that Japan will donate another USD 37 million so Ukraine can afford drone detection systems. These are important in air defense. The Foreign Minister's press conference was held in an underground bomb shelter due t...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns

PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...