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In yesterday's Congress session, the government withdrew the Omnibus law from the debate in the Lower House and sent it back to the respective commissions for further discussions. This represents an important congressional setback, considering that the Omnibus law had already been trimmed, in pri...

EU foreign affairs high representative in Kyiv

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

On February 6 Josep Borrell paid his 4th visit since the war began. He said he was there to reaffirm the EU's commitment to Ukraine. All these declaration of absolute solidarity seem suspicious. If the EU is so obviously committed why is it impelled to repeat that mantra constantly? In March 2024...

Economic activity continues to recover

ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Feb 2024

The CBS Business Survey for January points further recovery in economic activity. The net balance for current activity improved to +12 points from 7.4 points last month and -1.5 two months ago. Expectations for activity next month remained fairly weak at -1.75 (-2.13 last month) but employment ex...

Congress listed its priorities for the year, Lira stressed that the government needs to negotiate with Congress more, and Padilha will meet with Congress's leaders

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2024

Both Lira and Pacheco spoke about the need to regulate artificial intelligence. The regulation of Tax Reform was also mentioned. While Lira targeted his messages toward the Executive Office, Pacheco focused more on the Judiciary. Lira said that achievements such as the payroll tax exemption and P...

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections

CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi slows oil expansion, IMF reveals stronger Oman surpluses, Kuwait budgets a big deficit, US soldiers killed in Jordan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Feb 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude eased back to $79, and OPEC+ delayed making a decision on Q2 output. * An Iraqi militia drone killed 3 US soldiers, the first during the Gaza war, with retaliation expected. * Qatar participated in Gaza ceasef...

Essential CIS Politics: February 2024

CIS POLITICS · Report · 02 Feb 2024

* Russia and Ukraine are bombarding cities with increasing ferocity. * Russia's presidential election looms in March, but no change is expected. * Ukraine’s ammunition and recruitment situations are becoming critical. * The Kazakh oil workers’ strike continued for a month but is still sma...

Hungarian veto on the EU's €50bn aid package to Ukraine has been withdrawn with unexpected ease today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

Quite unexpectedly, but very positively from investors' point of view, today's extraordinary EU summit ended with a deal accepted by all member states, that means also by Hungary, in just a few hours after its start. Effectively, member states approved the original December proposal to provide Uk...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

The FX market has not been not too active in recent weeks. The government keeps discussing an extension of the mandatory sale of FX revenues for exporters (currently, this regime finishes at the end of April), while the Central bank opposes the idea. From the fundamental point of view, current re...

EU passes EUR 50 billion aid package for Ukraine

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Feb 2024

On February 1 all 27 EU member states agreed to the package. The row over this has lasted for 6 weeks. Hungary had vetoed the package until now. The President of the European Council hailed the news. There had been talk of stripping Hungary of its voting rights if Hungary did not agree. Hungary h...

“They won’t let us govern”

COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2024 · 1 response

In reaction to the Procuraduría General’s three-month suspension of Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, President Gustavo Petro paranoically pointed to a conspiracy against his government. But events may suggest other conclusions: a mishandled bidding process that led to a probably successful suit by ...

Growth and advantages ahead

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024

El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...

Base rate reduced by 75bps only today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jan 2024

At today's meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate to 10%, by 75 bps, despite a recent indication by the MNB that the monthly pace of rate cuts may be accelerated to 100bps this time. After the meeting, Vice Governor Virág said that the current level and direction of the CPI...

The Evergrande court case - what's next?

CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 29 Jan 2024

The Hong Kong high court ordered one of China’s largest property developers, China Evergrande Group, to liquidate, theoretically ending several years of uncertainty about the future of the developer. The court appointed a Hong Kong restructuring firm, Alvarez and Marsal, to handle the liquidation...

Politics: Violence, elections and political control—Part One

MEXICO · Report · 29 Jan 2024

In this issue of the Political Outlook we take a look at the interrelated questions of the presence of organized crime, its effect on local governments and authorities, and politically motivated violence on the part of such criminal gangs. The bottom line is that the expansion of organized crime...