GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In the last week of the congressional recess, the government is negotiating solutions to a series of disagreements with Congress. Payroll tax relief and vetoes of congressional funds continue to create tension. The president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), is trying to discuss friction between...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Cautious easing to continue in 2024

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Jan 2024

With Uzbekistan opening up the monetary policy season in the Caucasus and Central Asia on Jan 25 by keeping its key rate unchanged, we delve into our views about how central banks will conduct their rates policy this year. While average CCA inflation peaked around mid-2022, the uncertainty su...

Kazakhstan macro: Domestic demand expands amid booming consumer credit growth

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Jan 2024

On January 19, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 50 bps to 15.25%, which is still high as y-o-y inflation fell to 9.8% at the end of 2023. In December, m-o-m inflation reached 0.8%, implying about 10% annualized. Meanwhile, in recent months, the annualized 3M moving average inf...

UK accuses Russia of buying munitions from North Korea

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2024

On January 23 the United Kingdom showed the UN satellite images of 3 Russian ships in North Korea that were allegedly loading munitions to be used in the Ukraine War. However, the containers loaded cannot be proven to be filled with munitions. The ships were photographed in late 2023. The US has ...

The Annual Budget Law was sanctioned by Lula yesterday, Federal Revenue Service tax auditors continue their strike, and Haddad said the government may have to cut spending to meet the zero-deficit fiscal target

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2024

The Annual Budget Law (LOA), which was sanctioned by President Lula (PT) yesterday, was published in today's Federal Official Gazette. He vetoed part of the budget foreseen for committee amendments. The National Congress will likely try to overturn Lula's veto and reestablish the amendments. Acco...

Economics: Housing resurgence is limited by credit scarcity while GFI in construction of trade-related capacity dominates the private component

MEXICO · Report · 23 Jan 2024 · 1 response

Much of the dynamism that we have been witnessing in the construction sector is explained by the latest rise in spending on public works, especially with what the current administration is pumping into its flagship railroad projects, as we noted in our January 8 Outlook. However, in recent months...

US Interest Rates and the Brazilian Exchange Rate

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Since 2022, the movements of the Real have closely followed the variations of the Dollar Index, which in turn reflects betting on the movements of the fed funds rate. Although the market wager on an early start of the easing cycle in the United States was strengthened by the comments of Jerome Po...

The fiscal balance issue and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

Although there are no public meetings scheduled, the leaders of the National Congress, especially those in the House, are discussing payroll tax relief. This will be a busy week concerning industrial policy, with negotiations around the taxation of imported steel and the publication of the 2024-2...

Public servants hold strikes, the steel sector calls for a higher tax on imported steel, and the government is expected to sanction the 2024 Budget today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Jan 2024

The fact that the government did not include a salary raise for federal public servants in this year's budget has caused some dissatisfaction, and strike movements are beginning to gain strength. The government has not yet addressed the issue, but negotiations are underway. The government will me...

Governor Yaron appears satisfied by the fiscal adjustments recently approved in the Cabinet

ISRAEL · Report · 22 Jan 2024

1. The Governor appears cautiously optimistic regarding the recent fiscal adjustments approved in the Cabinet. 2. Inflation declined sharply in Q4 due to the impact of the war, but is likely to rise when hostilities diminish. 3. The labor market remains tight (with the number of officiall...

Governor Yaron appears satisfied by the fiscal adjustments

ISRAEL · In Brief · 22 Jan 2024

Politics/fiscal: The government approved a 16bn ILS fiscal adjustment plan for 2024, with higher taxation in 2025. The fiscal trimming in 2024 includes a 5% across-the-board fiscal cut, a higher cigarette tax and other measures. The Defense budget will increase by an additional 55bn. The Bank of ...

Growing protests in Russian ethnic minority region

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2024

Protests in Bashkortostan started on January 17 when a peace and environmental activist was sentenced to 4 years in jail for extremism. Hundreds of young men pelted the police with snowballs. Protests started in a small city but on January 19 spread to the regional capital, Ufa. 1,500 people dem...

Protestors block Ukrainian trucks from entering Romania

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Jan 2024

On January 18 2024 the truckers and farmers stopped Ukrainian trucks entering the country. They did this at all three crossings between Romania and Ukraine. The protests are about subsidies paid to farmers, forgiving loans and the fact that so many Ukrainian trucks are coming that it slows down R...

Webinar replay - Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics

COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

Watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Colombia Analysts Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andres Escobar and Mauricio Santa Maria as they discuss Colombia's macro and political outlook in 2024.

Lira met with Haddad to discuss the payroll tax issue, Lula criticized the business sector for supporting the payroll tax exemption, and Monday is the deadline for the government to sanction the 2024 Budget Law

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2024

Last night, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad (PT), met with the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to discuss this issue. The government is trying to confirm the plan that foresees the revocation of the provisional measure that resumes the payroll tax. Yesterday, President Lula ...