GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The strong GDP growth in 2023, of 3.1%, is much more a consequence of actual GDP, spurred by aggregate demand, than by growth of potential GDP. No matter how attractive they are, the narratives about increased productivity have no empirical support. Contrary to government and household consumptio...

KUWAIT: The new Amir's choice of crown prince is critical for the country's future

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Dec 2023

* Sheikh Mishal, age 83, succeeded as Amir on Saturday, after the death of his brother Nawaf. * He is a conservative figure with a background in national security and has been effective ruler for two years. * His choice of crown prince will set the tone for Kuwait in a critical decade. * The c...

Moldova adopts pro-Western defense strategy

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

On December 15 the Parliament voted to make the change. Moldova has officially been neutral until now. The former Soviet republic still does not seek to join NATO. The Moldovan government aspires to join the EU. The Harvard-educated president is an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause, too. How...

November’s low CPI, surprising on the downside, supports monetary easing

ISRAEL · Report · 18 Dec 2023

1. November’s CPI came in below expectations as core inflation moderated significantly. 2. This renews expectations for a rate cut in January (in two weeks), assuming low shekel volatility. 3. The CA surplus and net FDI are expected to reach 5.5% GDP this year, but geopolitical/political u...

Polish blockade of Ukrainian trucks continues

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2023

The Polish blockades of Ukrainian trucks continues. Polish truckers have been blocking Ukrainian trucks from entering or leaving Poland since November 6. Ukraine needs to export and import goods via Poland. The Polish authorities have done very little to stop this illegal blockade. Polish trucker...

November’s low CPI supports monetary loosening

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Dec 2023

Inflation surprises on the downside Headline inflation declined by 0.3% m/m (expectations were for -0.1%) and slowed to 3.3% y/y from 3.7% last month. Core inflation slowed to 2.9% y/y from 3.5% last month due to a sharp moderation in housing rental (OER) prices to 3.6% y/y from 4.9%. The breakou...

Correction: The little book of silver linings

TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2023

Please note that Table 1 in our quarterly/forecast report that was sent yesterday with the above title has been corrected to include the right policy and benchmark rate forecasts for 2024, which are now consistent with the text. The original dispatch, as we've just noticed, had an earlier version...

The current account surplus narrows in narrows in November amid lower oil price

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

The Russian Central Bank reported that, according to its flash estimates, the current account surplus narrowed in November to $4.3 bn. In October it was $4.9bn and in 3Q23 - $17.0 bn. The trade surplus also narrowed in November and reached $8.4 bn (in October, it was $9.4 bn). The regulator just ...

Webinar replay - Argentina: What to expect from the Milei administration

ARGENTINA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on Argentina's new administration so you can gauge how the change in leadership will impact the country’s macro outlook and political agenda.

Lula’s veto of the payroll tax relief was overturned, the ICMS MP should be approved by the end of next week, and next week is the final week of activity before Congress recesses

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2023

President Lula's veto of the bill dealing with payroll tax relief was overturned. The votes, both in the House and the Senate, were significant. After intense negotiations, the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), postponed the analysis of ICMS subsidies provisional measure (MP 1185/23) a...

Putin's live press conference

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

On December 14 he held his annual press conference cum phone-in. In theory, members of the public call in and they are randomly selected to speak to the president live on air. The 2023 edition was not as masterful as those of several years ago. Putin said that the war would go on until Russia ac...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s upgraded Oman again, oil touched a six-month low, Saudi budgets rising debt, Putin visited Gulf

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Dec 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched $74, the lowest in nearly six months, as demand worries eclipsed OPEC+ cuts. * The UAE tabled a new Gaza ceasefire resolution at the UN, after a rare request from UNSC Guterres. * Gulf states displayed u...

CCA Highlights: Armenia growth still brisk in 3Q, Azerbaijan closes USAID, Georgian Dream boosted by intensifying split in opposition, S&P confirms Uzbekistan at BB-

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

We comment on key macro-related events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Economy grows by a robust 7.4 percent YoY in 3Q23 Armenia: Short-term economic indicator increases by 6.0 percent YoY in Oct Armenia: Hayakve (Armenian vote) initiative to be discussed in Parliament in two mo...

Economics: Data shows strong economic growth even as rising public deficit and debt pose future problems

MEXICO · Report · 04 Dec 2023

As we look back at the indicators released over the course of November, the headline note came from the GDP report for the third quarter. The definitive data showed continuing momentum through an eighth consecutive quarter and prompted many to adopt a brighter outlook. The GDP numbers for the thi...

Turkey’s “Don’t mess with Uncle Sam” moment

TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2023

Despite being a NATO member and allegedly a candidate for EU membership, Turkey is the subject of an extraordinary number of sanctions threats from US and EU. A new one came from US Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson who visited Turkey the second time in 2023, issuing stern warnings to Turkish ...