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All beneficiaries will receive a minimum amount of R$ 600, and two complementary payments will be created to better meet the size and characteristics of each family. The relaunching of the program reinforces Lula's connection with the low-income population and re-establishes the social brand of t...

A decent start in January

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2023

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors shrank by 2.5% y-o-y in January which was better than in 4Q22 when it contracted by 3.1% y-o-y. The performance of various sectors was quite uneven in January, but less so than in 2022. Industrial output and transportation services contra...

Monetary policy rate unchanged in March 2023

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Mar 2023 · 1 response

The Central Bank decided yesterday to maintain the monetary policy rate at 8.5% per year, the same level in force since Nov 2021. The permanent liquidity expansion facility rate (1-day Repos) is also kept unchanged at 9% per year and the rate of remunerated deposits (overnight) at 8% per year. Th...

Federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol were reinstated, parties will meet in the House and Senate to appoint members of the permanent committees, and the pressure in Congress for a CPMI on the January 8 attacks continues

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Mar 2023

The published provisional measure reinstates the federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol, as well as establishing the rate of export tax on crude oil exports at 9.2% until June 30, 2023. The solution found was considered a victory for the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad. Today, the blocs and p...

US Secretary of State in Kazakhstan

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Mar 2023

Antony Blinken held talks in Kazakhstan with President Tokayev. In Kazakhstan met the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. He then flew to Uzbekistan. The US does not want Central Asian countries to support Russia over Ukraine. All five of them abstained in t...

Details of Minera Panama´s new contract remain secret. Implementation of the new base year improves the fiscal ratios slightly. The political scenario heats up fifteen months before the general elections.

PANAMA · Report · 01 Mar 2023 · 1 response

February is coming to an end, and there is no official indication that the conclusion of the new agreement between Minera Panama and the Executive will be reached in the coming weeks. The company indicated that it would phase down its mining and export operations and suggested that direct employm...

Air raid sirens sound in west Russia: hacking or real raids?

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2023

On February 28 the sirens went off in the regions adjacent to Ukraine. The government said that the sirens had been started by hackers setting them off despite their not being attacks. The sirens are heard via TV and radio. On February 21 such sirens were heard in many other Russian regions. Nota...

Ukraine says its troops in Bakhmut are under severe pressure

CIS POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Feb 2023

On February 28 Kyiv made the statement about the city which has been under Russian attack for months. It seems that Russia is desperate to win a battle for the first time since the summer of 2022. Almost every building in Bakhmut is damaged or destroyed. The city has salt mines and used to produc...

Today's Monetary Council meeting went (almost) exactly as expected

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2023

The Council did not change the base rate (13%) and the interest rate corridor(12.5-25%) today, and it specifically said that the O/N deposit rate (18%) also remains unchanged, and it will remain so for a while in the future as well. The Council made decisions on two issues: 1. The Bank will cont...

Consumption leads growth yet another quarter

TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2023

GDP rose by 3.5%, y/y, in 2022Q4, higher than the consensus forecast of under 3% expansion (but broadly in line with ours), as sequential growth picked up to just under 1%, from an almost flat reading in the previous quarter (Graph 1). For the year as a whole, GDP grew by a faster than expecte...

Lula has a meeting to discuss the return of federal taxes on fuel, the working group on Tax Reform should meet to discuss the work plan, and the terms of two Central Bank directors come to an end today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2023

President Lula meets with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, and the president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates. The new formula will result in a progressive recharging of federal taxes on fuels. The working group created to ...

The rise of Eastern Indonesia

INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2023

The Indonesian economy posted an encouraging result for Q4 2022 with growth of 5.01%, although this was significantly lower than the 5.72% rate achieved in the previous quarter. GDP for full-year 2022 grew by 5.31%, at the bottom of the predicted range of growth. Compared to the previous quart...

Distrust

VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2023

The threat of hyperinflation redux brings to light just how precarious is the government’s macro stabilization model. Forced to speed up Venezuela’s forex burn rate to contain bolivar weakening and faced with salary demands that can’t be met and the rising costs of ubiquitous corruption, especial...

Kazakhstan macro: strong inflow of tax revenues in the republican budget hints the economy is in good shape

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Feb 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics the short-term indicator that takes into account economic activity in six main sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) grew by 5.0% y-o-y in January. These sectors represent around 60% of GDP. At the same t...

Lula will have a meeting to discuss the return of federal taxes on gasoline and alcohol, tomorrow he is expected to make changes to the Bolsa Família program, and Congress should select the heads of the permanent committees

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

At 10 a.m. today, President Lula will meet with Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and the President of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates. The topic of the meeting is the return of federal taxes on gasoline and alcohol. On Tuesday, February 28, President Lula (PT) is expected t...